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Non-Tech : Amati investors -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael F. Donadio who wrote (29709)	12/6/1997 1:26:00 AM
From: pat mudge	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 31386

[ADSL quandary] <<<I'm trying to find a way to join the wedding party, but without an invitation they aren't making it easy. I keep on trying to see how to reinvest in ADSL and cannot find a vehicle as satisfying as Amati was. TI seems like a good bet, but clearly ADSL is only part of their focus. >>> You've put it very well. I'll ride TI for awhile, even though it's not a pure play. Westell may be viable eventually, but not until they get new leadership and new direction. Bell Canada dealt them a blow, GTE dealt them a blow, TI dealt them a blow, DSC dealt them a blow, and now their CEO is dealing them a blow -- granted, by default. As for being glad for the $20, under the circumstances, I tend to agree. Amati took the technology as far as they could with the funding they had. Lots of "ifs" --- if the chips had come out sooner, if the telcos hadn't delayed, if there hadn't been any buyers (bankers insisted on accepting a buyout over equity capital). . . But that's not how it went. Chips were delayed. Telcos stalled. A buyer came up to the plate. And then another. And always the shareholders had to be protected. I would have preferred the equity money (Siemens was willing, as were a couple others), and taken the increased risk, but investment bankers follow strict rules and when presented with their alternatives, the board didn't have a choice. Yes, there are times I'm tempted to think it was all plotted in advance. The hawks circling, knowing the wren would weaken, and if even slightly injured, they could come in for the kill. But I doubt it happens quite that methodically. Certain events occur --- like a small company needing financing --- and there's a likely response --- someone stronger steps up to the plate and offers what the market will bear. It's called survival of the fittest. So, what's the investor to do? I don't believe all our research and hard work has to be lost. We've followed all the companies long enough to know their strengths and weaknesses. Orckit may be a good play once they acknowledge they'll license. Ascend may be another --- they've announced they'll use Alcatel's chips. If they'd said TI's, I'd be more impressed. Siemens isn't a pure play, but I expect them to give Alcatel a run for their money. I believe they're TI's top ADSL customer and all three companies have been working hand-in-glove for a long time, now. Now that we know the primary players, perhaps we can find some secondary players --- those who don't supply the core IP, but perhaps an essential piece. That's why I'm buying Spectrum. I'm still not certain how big their part will be in RAS, but from what I'm told they're working closely with TI and in due time we'll know just what that means. The other one I'm watching is Crosskeys, the systems management company NN's spinning off. They've announced an IPO, but no date's been set. In a somewhat unrelated field --- Internet banking --- I'm buying CKFR, Checkfree. I bought my first lot at 26+ and have added twice since then --- today at 29 3/8. It's not highspeed, but it certainly stands to be a major player in its field. Perhaps others can offer suggestions. My brain's slowing down. Too many Christmas cookies. . . Night! pat