Hi Yorikke, I am going to reprint several posts of mine from the last couple of weeks..... please connect the dots.... look for the YODS and the conjunctions!!!!!!!!! ;-) ;-)
and I have not gone into all of the Fibonacci time turning points... and some other aspects of the time cycle methodology..... several of these techniques overlap,.... dovetail.... and create a synergistic whole.....
to make it easy I am going to give you the key takeaway in the first couple of posts....
these posts are from 4 or 5 threads and so some of the numeric links work..... and some do not...
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| To: John Pitera who wrote (51279) | 6/5/2013 1:23:18 PM | | From: John Pitera | 1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) of 51493 | | | Hi Fintas... AS I stated here on Sunday in May..... the peak in mass mood Euphoria and concomitant turning point was Sunday May 26th....... we had the applying pressure of 2 other cycles on Thursdays May 23rd..... as well as a very significant full moon occurring the next night and the Mars Venus Jupiter conjunction... It was a significant time turning point.
So Far..... the optimism peaked the Thursday -Friday prior to Memorial Day weekend. as I stated to TJ..... and I was all jagged out from my bitch of a trip to Chicago.......but we got our extreme in bullish psychology just prior to Memorial Day weekend.
John
As I have pointed out Art Cashin...... knows more about the financial markets than just about an one walking on the face of the earth.......
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I did not highlight and mark up the post to hand out my key points initially.... they used to teach critical reading in school......
| To: TobagoJack who wrote ( 100832) | 5/29/2013 11:40:06 AM | | From: John Pitera | Read Replies (1) of 100915 | | the Hi TJ, The JGB's the Japanese government notes have gone from 0.60% in yield to 0 .86% in yield in 3 days..... that would be like us rates going from 6 % to 9% in 3 days.... negative...
We made a new post secular bottom....new high in the $tnx..going fro, 2.91 to over 2.1 % in those same days.
The most accurate cycle work I have seen shows at peak in mass mood on Sunday May 26th..... and Equity markets should make; a top on JUNE 7th (that is the Bradley date... but the Bradley is simply a blended average of models......
JJP |
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John
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| To: Augustus Gloop who wrote (14125) | 6/5/2013 4:18:26 PM | | From: John Pitera | of 14142 | | | I am 3 stokes over par and need a birdie at bare minimum and more likely an eagle to make the cut..... It's a competitive field
Mike,
The Post to Fintas is from GZ's thread... and my post on TJ's thread from May 29th.......
well the key takeaway is that the Bullish Psychology would climax on Sunday, the day prior to Memorial Day...and thus the Long Exposure needed to be pruned back..... The shorts and Put option strategies needed to be set up with the VIX at very low levels...
and the repositioning done the week before Memorial Day weekend. That played a minor role on my trips to Chicago..
I am happy to report that I was already in the back seat of a SILVER TOWN CAR.. with the window open heading to O'Hare... at 10:40 AM Friday morning.... I beat the Memorial Day rush and was at the gate for my 12:20 PM direct flight to Houston.... with 50 minutes to spare.....
aahhh.... it's the little things we have to be thankful for!!!!..........
your Long, Long Time friend...
John Jacob Pitera.....
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| To: John Pitera who wrote ( 51279) | 6/5/2013 1:23:18 PM | | From: John Pitera | of 51352 | | Hi Fintas... AS I stated here on Sunday in May..... the peak in mass mood Euphoria and concomitant turning point was Sunday May 26th....... we had the applying pressure of 2 other cycles on Thursdays May 23rd..... as well as a very significant full moon occurring the next night and the Mars Venus Jupiter conjunction... It was a significant time turning point.
So Far..... the optimism peaked the Thursday -Friday prior to Memorial Day weekend. as I stated to TJ..... and I was all jagged out from my bitch of a trip to Chicago.......but we got our extreme in bullish psychology just prior to Memorial Day weekend.
John
As I have pointed out Art Cashin...... knows more about the financial markets than just about an one walking on the face of the earth.......
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| To: TobagoJack who wrote ( 100832) | 5/29/2013 11:40:06 AM | | From: John Pitera | Read Replies (1) of 100915 | | the Hi TJ, The JGB's the Japanese government notes have gone from 0.60% in yield to 0 .86% in yield in 3 days..... that would be like us rates going from 6 % to 9% in 3 days.... negative...
We made a new post secular bottom....new high in the $tnx..going fro, 2.91 to over 2.1 % in those same days.
The most accurate cycle work I have seen shows at peak in mass mood on Sunday May 26th..... and Equity markets should make; a top on JUNE 7th (that is the Bradley date... but the Bradley is simply a blended average of models......
|
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| To: richardred who wrote (14061) | 5/29/2013 10:34:44 AM | | From: John Pitera | of 14142 | | | Hi RR, A very rare and blessed conjunction of Jupiter Venus and Mercury which was applying going into Sunday May 26th.....which is a major time turning point....... and people are feeling the love and optimism right now....
JJP
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| John Pitera's Market Laboratory | Stock Discussion Forums      Share | Recommend | Keep | Reply | Mark as Last Read | Read Replies (2) |
| To: John Pitera who wrote (14102) | 5/29/2013 10:44:34 AM | | From: John Pitera | of 14142 | | | Excerpted from The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators by Robert W. Colby, CMT
Astrology, Financial Applications of Astronomic Cycles
The use of Astrology and Astronomical Cycles applied to analysis of financial markets is complex
and controversial. It is well known that W. D. Gann, a highly influential technician and
trader who practiced in the first half of the 20th century, intensely applied astrology to market
timing, reportedly with remarkable success. Unfortunately, Gann’s methods are not fully
disclosed in his writings.
Astrological literature accumulated over the past 4000 years could fill whole libraries. It
was an important academic discipline taught in major universities until just a few hundred years
ago. Today, astrology has fallen out of fashion on campus, but retains a wide following off
campus.
Few market technicians acknowledge any attempt to incorporate astrology into their work.
Some unknowable number of large money managers take an active but secret interest in the
subject. Arch Crawford and Bill Meridian are the most prominent technical analysts who openly
use astrology in their work. ( I have studied under all 3 of them back in the late 1980's... crashed on Arch Crasford's floor on the upper east side, as well as Robert Colby's place on 1st ave... and 81st street.... (they have all moved since then... and played the board game Illuminatti with Bill Sarubi and Henry Volquardsen and various other luminaries.... at Bill's place right off of Washington square park in Greenwich Village)......They will all confirm these things and also tell you what a screw ball I am.... they are great men ... intellectual giants... I am the dullest tool in the shed.... actually if they are in a charitable mood... they may mutter something about a colorful and misspent youth.....that jus
Arch Crawford has been named “Wall Street’s best known astrologer” by Barron’s
Financial Weekly, based on his many uncanny predictions over the past 40 years. He is famous
for calling the Crash of ’87 months in advance, and he correctly predicted bear markets in July
1990 and March 2000. Crawford also has pinpointed in advance many minor trend change dates,
such as the temporary [gold] bottom on April 4, 2001. And his forecasts extend beyond market
turns. In his newsletter dated September 4, 2001, just seven days before the World Trade Center
was hit in New York on 9/11, Crawford specifically identified two separate Mars aspects that
could lead to war and a steep drop in stock prices in days ahead.
Crawford offers a popular investment advisory service focusing on market timing for the
U.S. general stock market price indexes (primarily the S&P500, the Dow-Jones Industrial
Average, and the NASDAQ 100) as well as futures, including U.S. Treasuries, Gold, Oil, and
Foreign Currencies. For more than two [now three decades as of May ‘06] decades he has
published a monthly newsletter, Crawford Perspectives, 6890 E. Sunrise Drive, #120-70, Tucson,
Arizona 85750, phone (520) 577-1158, fax (520) 577-1110, [Now
www.CrawfordPerspectives.com] [It is also available in German language in Europe] He also
updates a twice-daily phone hotline, [Now (900) 562-7876 or (900) 56-ASTRO] Crawford’s
combination of astronomical cycles and technical analysis to make market calls have earned him
top ratings in market timing in the Hulbert and Timer Digest surveys.
Bill Meridian is an internationally renowned financial researcher, fund manager, and
designer of analytical software, including the first program developed for researching the
correlation between time series data (including stock prices) and planetary cycles. Also, he
compiled an authoritative collection of first trade charts for 1062 individual stocks in the 1998
edition of his book, Planetary Stock Trading. Meridian found that the astrological chart of the
date of the initial trade in a stock correlates with subsequent changes in the stock’s price trend.
His 55 case studies of widely held stocks show precisely how progressions and transits correlate
with changes in price. Meridian’s latest book, Planetary Economic Forecasting, correlates a
monthly index of industrial production with planetary cycles over 200 years. His 1994 study of
the effect of the lunar cycle on the DJIA was confirmed by an analysis at the University of
Michigan in 2001. He also demonstrated a 3.8-year Mars cycle whose signals outperformed the
market. He also demonstrated a 3.8-year Mars cycle whose signals outperformed the market.
Meridian’s studies and market timing advisory services are available through
www.billmeridian.com, or write to Cycles Research, 666 Fifth Avenue, Suite 402, Lower Arcade,
New York, NY 10103.
The following study, updated by Bill Meridian and reprinted herewith his permission,
previously was published in the Journal of the Astrological Association of Great Britain in
1985, NCGR in1986, and Llewellyn’s Financial Astrology for the 1990’s.
THE MARS VESTA CYCLE IN U.S. STOCK PRICES
By Bill Meridian
One of the dominant rhythms in common stock prices is a cycle of approximately four years in
length. Examples of lows in this cycle are 1974, 1978, 1982, 1986, 1990, 1994, and 1998.
This study was first published in 1985 and is updated here. When this cycle first came under
scrutiny, analysts attributed the phenomenon to the four years in the presidential cycle. They
theorized that the government stimulated the economy through the Federal Reserve at election
time to provide the illusion of prosperity and ensure the re-election of the incumbent. However,
closer analysis reveals that the cycle also exists in countries where elections are held every six or
eight years.
The effect of the Mars-
Vesta cycle on the Dow is depicted in graph 1. The graph shows the average tendency for the Dow to move in
percentage terms as Mars and Vesta make a complete cycle. A move from 1.0 to 1.02 represents a move of 2 percent.
When the study was first run in 1985, there was a tendency for the market to top at the 90-degree aspect and to bottom at
the 240-degree angle. Since that time, there have been four more completed cycles. Both the high and the low points in
the cycle seem to have drifted back by about 15 degrees in the last 15 years.
(A x B / (A - B) = Synodic Cycle
(where A and B are the sidereal periods of the two planets involved)
And yet, local media people continue to describe bull and bear markets in terms of their own
economies and local events. They do not see that there is some larger force at work, known as
the principle of commonality. In addition, the cycle existed well before the establishment of the
Fed in 1913.
Some Wall Street veterans contend that the Rothschilds were the first to discover and use the
cycle for profitable trading. Earlier in the last century, a New York investment group reportedly
employed a mathematician to uncover the Rothschild’s secret. More recently, Veryl L. Dunbar
wrote about a 3.84-year cycle in the June 30,1952 issue of Barron’s.
There is a planetary correlation to this cycle. In order to determine the length of a synodic
planetary period in longitude (the length of time that elapses from the conjunction of two bodies to
their next conjunction), substitute the sidereal periods in the following formula:
(A x B / (A - B) = Synodic Cycle
(where A and B are the sidereal periods of the two planets involved)
Substitution of the sidereal periods of the planet Mars and the asteroid Vesta into this formula
gives a cycle of 3.90 years, very close to Dunbar’s 3.84 years. As an aside, I have found that
Vesta is usually prominent in the natal horoscopes of professional stock traders.
The effect of the Mars-Vesta cycle on the Dow is depicted in graph 1. The graph shows the
average tendency for the Dow to move in percentage terms as Mars and Vesta make a complete
cycle. A move from 1.0 to 1.02 represents a move of 2 percent. When the study was first run in
1985, there was a tendency for the market to top at the 90-degree aspect and to bottom at the
240-degree angle. Since that time, there have been four more completed cycles. Both the high
and the low points in the cycle seem to have drifted back by about 15 degrees in the last 15 years.
However, in updating the study, I adhered to the original decision rule that was derived in 1985.
The table in this report demonstrates the results of a mechanical buy-and-sell strategy versus and
simple buy-and-hold strategy since 1903. The rule assumes that the investor bought the Dow
Jones Industrial Average whenever Mars and Vesta were 240 degrees apart and sold them when
the pair was 90 degrees apart. In cases where the aspect occurred more than once due to
retrograde motion, the last aspect was selected as the buy or sell signal.
Following the rule, the portfolio generated 19 gains and 6 losses. A $1,000 portfolio would have
grown to $283,472 versus $117,645 for the buy-and-hold strategy (i.e., purchasing the Dow at the
first cycle and holding to the last). These dollar figures ignore trading costs, interest rates,
dividends, etc.
CYCLE
NO. $ INVEST. BUY-240 DJIA SELL-90 DJIA % CHANGE
1 1000 12/11/03 46 5/11/06 93 102%
2 2016 12/22/07 58 6/3/09 94 61%
3 3256 2/10/11 85 7/9/13 75 -12%
4 2859 2/9/15 57 8/14/17 92 61%
5 4613 2/20/19 83 9/11/21 71 -14%
6 3949 3/16/23 104 10/2/25 146 40%
7 5548 5/4/27 169 10/15/29 347 106%
8 11425 7/8/31 144 11/16/32 63 -56%
9 5005 8/26/35 129 12/9/36 181 40%
10 7022 7/13/38 137 1/4/41 132 -4%
11 6771 9/15/42 106 2/2/45 154 45%
12 9792 10/27/46 166 3/2/49 174 5%
13 10261 11/20/50 232 3/22/53 287 24%
14 12720 12/1/54 384 4/23/56 507 32%
15 16792 1/13/58 440 6/2/60 628 43%
16 23983 1/19/62 701 7/11/64 846 21%
17 28956 1/29/66 984 8/11/68 881 -10%
18 25938 2/16/70 754 9/2/72 969 29%
19 33347 3/22/74 878 9/13/76 983 12%
20 37329 5/21/78 855 10/19/79 815 -5%
21 35565 7/20/82 833 11/13/83 1254 50%
22 53513 5/28/85 1302 12/7/87 1812 39%
23 74501 8/1/89 2641 12/31/91 3169 20%
24 89396 9/25/93 3543 1/21/96 6884 94%
25 173695 1/10/97 6704 1/31/00 10941 63%
26 283472 11/13/2000* 3/17/03
*There are 3 buy signal trines over a period of 1 year: The first is listed in the table. The next two are:May
14,2001 and Nov.10,2001.Mars-Vesta Buy/Sell Strategy Yields: $283,472Buy and Hold Strategy Yields:
$117,645
Thus, the Mars-Vesta cycle outperforms the buy-and-hold by better then two to one. If one
assumes that the funds in the Mars-Vesta portfolio were collecting interest in between the sell
and the buy signals, then the amount would be greater. But then we would have to add dividend
income into the buy-and-hold portfolio. Those who recall the first publication of this study in 1985
may note that the performance of the cycle has improved. Mars-Vesta outperformed by 1.9 to 1
up to 1985. Currently, it is running at 2.4 to 1. All the buy signals since 1985 have been profitable.
The strategy’s most notable failure was a buy into the 1931 bear market when Mars-Vesta was
overpowered by stronger cycles. But the October 15,1929 sell signal kept one out of the crash.
The July 20,1982 buy signal was timely. Most recently, the January 31,2000 sell signal protected
portfolios from the year 2000 turmoil. This study first appeared in the Journal of the Astrological
Association of Great Britain in 1985 and was reprinted by the NCGR in 1986. It also appeared in
Llewellyn’s Financial Astrology for the 1990s without giving credit to the author.•••
Astrology, Long-Term Cycles
According to David McMinn, (Financial Crises & The 56-Year Cycle, Twin Palms, Blue Knob
2480, Australia), 1 56-year cycle has been established in trends of U,S. and Western European
financial crises since 1760 (Funk, 1932; McMinn, 1995). Mills (1867) speculated that the
“mental mood of businessmen tends to run in cycle.” Throughout economic history, generations
of human beings appear to repeat cycles of manic optimism and depressed pessimism. Crises
occur when there is a sudden shift in sentiment from greed to fear. The 56-year cycle correlates
closely with cycles of the sun and moon. It is well established that these cycles have a direct
impact on planet earth and all its life forms, including human beings. The sun and moon directly
impact the following earthly phenomena: gravitational pull causes tides in the sea, atmosphere,
and land surface; earthquake and volcanic activity; weather; magnetic and electromagnetic
energy fields; the four seasons; the 24-hour day; sexual/breeding cycles (human average
menstrual cycle is the same as the synodic month of 29.5 days and the average human gestation
period is 9 synodic months); reproduction, molting, and many physiological rhythms in
mammals are regulated by seasonal changes in the photo period (variation in hours of daylight);
and gravity affects biological tides of bodily liquids in life forms, and that may impinge on
physical functions and emotions. The 56-year cycle appears to correlate with angular
relationships between the sun and moon: the angles 0 deg and 180 deg between the sun, moon,
and nodes repeat to within one degree every 56 and 9 solar years. Perfect correlations exist
between the 36 year sub-cycles and: 1) zodiacal placement of the conjunctions of the sun and
moon’s north node; 2) the moon angles to these sun and moon’s north node conjunctions; 3) the
position of the moon’s north node on a specific date of the year. Major financial crises are most
likely to occur when the moon’s north node is in the quadrants: Aries-Taurus-Gemini and Libra-
Scorpio-Sagittarius. Several variables combine to give rise to complex cyclical behavior.
Specific patterns never repeat exactly but vary and change progressively over long time spans.
McMinn’s ideas presented here were adapted from the Technical Securities Analysts Association
of San Francisco monthly newsletter, April, 1996.
“New evidence Precise Long-Wave Stock Cycles,” was presented by Christopher L.
Carolan of Calendar Research, Inc., PO Box 680666, Marietta, GA 30068,
www.calendarresearch.com. From his position on the floor of the options exchange, Carolan
witnessed first hand the effects of the 1987 crash, which occurred on precisely the same date on
the lunar calendar as the 1929 crash, according to Carolan’s Spiral Calendar. This tool identifies
potential turning points in the stock market that provide highly significant correlations by chisquared
tests. Basically, solar and lunar eclipses offer significant market timing dates, although
not all eclipses have an impact on the market. Tops and panics are associated with eclipses that
occur with a cycle of approximately 36- and 58-years since 1763. Carolan’s Spiral Calendar
enabled him to identify in advance large-but-quick “pothole” declines of 20-30% in July 1998
(the actual drop began on 7/17/98) and on April 14, 2000 which was a selling climax day.
Looking ahead, Carolan identified a potential top in the stock market in December 2001 and a
potential 1987-style panic in July 2023. This is a brief summary of Carolan’s talk given at the
Market Technicians Association’s 25th Annual Seminar in May 2000, adapted from the notes of
Mike Carr, which were posted on the MTA web site, www.mta.org.
It is interesting to note how the same or similar cycle lengths appear in the work of
independent researchers using different approaches. (See Cycles.) |
| John Pitera's Market Laboratory | Stock Discussion Forums-----------------------
| To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (51243) | 6/4/2013 10:18:51 AM | | From: John Pitera | 2 Recommendations Read Replies (2) of 51492 | | | Hi GZ.... I hope you are well and enjoyed the Memorial Day Holliday. Entitlement hit me with a question regarding the outrage when I was up in Chicago on Business at the End of April and then during the lion's share of May..... I took a bit of his apple and answered his question..... as to where is the public outrage...
| To: Entitlement who wrote ( 14077) | 6/3/2013 9:49:50 PM | | From: John Pitera | 2 Recommendations of 14112 | | Hi Entitlement,
Because the purpose of Banking is to make money..... and the purpose of creating Banks.... Like when Alexander Hamilton, created the first Bank of the US... a precursor of today s FED... Hamilton created a huge bubble in the price of US Government debt
This is the reason that our founding fathers did not trust central banks and thus they were only given 20 year charters...... That went on for over 120 years..... and also may have gotten a couple of presidents "whacked"
The Bank of England which was established on threadneedle street right off of broad street in London in 1666.. the year of the great fire that burnt down 2/3 of the city, but also eliminated the Bubonic Plague... which was ravaging the citizenry....
anyway..... in 1709 there was a bidding war between two very wealthy banking houses for the right to purchase the Debt that the British Parliament issued......
Banking.... and also Insurance are extremely lucrative businesses.......
One of the reasons that we have booms and bust come down to two of the most basic human emotions...
Fear and Greed.... and for those who are members of a family, a very successful Corporation... such as The Standard.. (Standard Oil) or are members of a tight knit church or A synagogue, also spelled synagog (from Greek: s??a???? transliterated synagoge, meaning "assembly"; ??? ???? beyt knesset, meaning "house of assembly.....
this knowledge of market cycles and the neverending human tendency to want to get aboard and buy what everyone else is buying even when it is way overpriced..... and they shun.... things that are inexpensive and represent substantial value.
Having lived on Long Island in New York at a very young age.... my parents especially my mom really had a visceral loathing for the pretentiousness of the "Novae Riche"...... Mom did not grow up with tons of money, but her family.... her Dad and her brother worked for a tremendously descent family that was the appitonly of "Old Money" where they did not flaunt it and you really would not know .... the wealth they had in Foundations etc.
So there is no accountability..... you can not find an educated person if you looked for one..... just ask Patrick Slevin.....
and the reason their is no out cry is that people are not able to actually listen to those who have knowledge and will tell you where it's at/
I try to use simple parables......
If you are in 3rd grade..... and you talk to 10 people in high school.... and ask them questions about history, science, math, social studies, English..... Life experience..... 999 out of 1000 3rd graders can not tell you who is the smartest or even come close to ranking them in the proper order......
So people here so much spin, and disinformation is provided and there are very compelling reasons why so many people spin things and also provide dis information.
If I had 100,000 shares of stock to sell and it's 1880 and we are in a bar/restaurant in New York.
what am I going to do... If I know that the companies product does not work and they are losing there major contracts next week....
If I tell the barflies the truth.... I will never unload the 100,000 shares.... so Instead of the truth.... I spread the word that the company prospects are great and huge new orders are on the way... and I am going to be rich... then as the barflies buy on my "disinformation" I can unload the 100,000 shares at the prevailing and maybe even rising prices and I am way the heck out of Dodge when the stock price collapses.
OK Entitlement..... now put your thinking cap on and ask me the very best follow up question that you can.... and you may be advance to the next round and actually earn something very valuable....
Value... things of Value.... they differ from person to person, and from society to society.... and also over a given time cycle.
My best regards,
JJP
Bite on this:;
Why is our Fed QE'ing their way to fraudulent prosperity ?
Is not our Treasury on the hook for the Fed's QE's ?
Where is the accountability ?
Why is not the general public screaming ? |
John
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| To: John Vosilla who wrote (100794) | 5/31/2013 9:55:28 AM | | From: John Pitera | 3 Recommendations Read Replies (1) of 100923 | | | Hi John, EUROZONE Interactive stress test.... the official EU rate is 12.2% and the youth unemployment rate is 25%...
Mohammed El-Erian.. pointed out yesterday on cnbc that the Eurozone economy is weak... and they have experience the longest recession since merging in 1995.
graphics.thomsonreuters.com 
with the interactive chart above; one can toggle a couple of the control items and see what the Euro banks look like with different %'s of the Basel II Accord...........etc
when I was at BFL associated in 2007, we were studying the Basel II bank capitalization ratio's.... at the time the purpose was to strengthen the EU banking system..... and a report from McKinsey stated that they were aiming for a 20% rate of underlying asset capitalization..... since then it has been "dumbed down" reduced.... as a 10% rate would have Austria, Belgium,Cypress, France Germany, Greece, Holland Ireland, Italy, Portugal Slovenia, Spain, the UK and Norway.... 77 banks in total... that's if they stuck with the original 10% threshold.
from a debt to GDP perspective the PIGS including Ireland and Italy are still lapping the field and Cypress, is a serious mess....as is Greece.
John |
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