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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom Markowski who wrote (7916)	12/6/1997 11:38:00 AM
From: Sid Turtlman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9285

Tom: "As for the states...every PC sold today will be replaced in 3,4, or 5 years." I think the replacement cycle is slowing down. The low end computers, and old used ones, are fine for what most people use them for - e-mail, surfing the web, word processing. This is being written on my P75 laptop; state of the art 2 years ago, in theory hopelessly behind the times now, except that it is fine for all my uses. When I bought it I expected that I would have replaced it before now, but I still don't see any reason to do so. I am sure that one of these days some software or new application will come along that won't work very well with this machine, and then I will buy a new one, but I'm just not sure what that would be. I think a lot of people are finding the same thing. Maybe some kind of video on demand system or something will stimulate the replacement cycle again, but until then, I wouldn't count on any great stimulus to box demand from that source.

To: Tom Markowski who wrote (7916)	12/6/1997 12:52:00 PM
From: Pancho Villa	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9285

TM:>>Pancho,... the PC market upside is huge. Asia is just beginning. Everyone in China wants a PC...they are educated people. As for the states...every PC sold today will be replaced in 3,4, or 5 years. You can't say that about TV sets or refrigerators, VCRs or even printers. The bottom line is CPQ and Dell are achieving economies of scale that very few other manufactures can replicate. As for sub $1000 PCs...its just bringing in a whole new user into the market. Mostly children and first time users. They expand the market.<< Tom, what can I say? you getan A+. IMO this probably also applies to MSFT. They may just be barely starting.... probably should buy my msft again at some point ..... Pancho

To: Tom Markowski who wrote (7916)	12/6/1997 1:18:00 PM
From: Jumper	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9285

>Everyone in China wants a PC< And where shall they make it? Shipping is cheap when the cargo is in the back of a cross town van.