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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pass pass who wrote (26640)	12/6/1997 12:04:00 PM
From: swrdfsh	Respond to of 61433

Another factor which hasn't been discussed on this thread is the strategy of acquiring to get employees. Some buyers don't care as much about product lines as getting good people. They can't easily be dislodged because of stock options, etc. so why not just buy the whole company? The tech labor market is very tight and getting tighter. It's happening. swrdfsh

To: pass pass who wrote (26640)	12/6/1997 12:48:00 PM
From: satish kamat	Respond to of 61433

pass pass: IMO for now ASND is better off by itself, though in long term ASND needs a partner. Recent annoncements confirmed what we all knew: this was a fire sell due to CSCC integration-pains, product transition, ROK's bungling of 56K transition, some TNT issues and soft Japan. This was further compounded by the year-end tax selling and lack-of near-term visibility. Going forward, we will see ASND's improving visibility along with ATM wins. Full scale shipping of TNT MAX to Europe and Japan in Q1 along with gains in Chinese market should propel 98 eps to $1.45 or further. The first confirmation of this should be on Jan 20 earning announcement. I wouldn't be surprised if we see more than $300 MM in revenues with handily beating $0.25c eps estiamtes. This should propel ASND on its own merit to 40-50 range by Q1 end. At thiat time I would like to see the bids by LU/NT/CPQ. By that time revenues may be runnung ar run rate of $1.6 B. For now, its a good trading play with a long term position.

To: pass pass who wrote (26640)	12/6/1997 3:19:00 PM
From: HEXonX	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 61433

Pass, I just heard that Livingston(Lu) is coming out with a TNT competative box. I forget where I read or heard this. sorry. HEX

To: pass pass who wrote (26640)	12/6/1997 3:20:00 PM
From: mark alan rosenberg	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 61433

A $35/ share buy-out will not be accepted. 8-8.5X revs may be. That puts the buy-out price at: 8.5X revs ($1.2 bil trailing) = $ 10 bil 10 bil / 199 mil shares (fully diluted) = $50/ share Here's what is in it for the acquirer: Cost of acquisition ~ $500 mil Buy-Out $10 bil Net Capture Cash& Eqv -$600 mil Cost 9.9 bil ASND theoretical scheduled growth rate of revs 30%/ year '98 sales $1.63 bil net $265 mil net margin 16.5% * '99 $2.12 bil $340 mil $1.80/ share '00 $2.76 bil $449 mil $2.38/ share '01 $3.6 bil $586 mil $3.10/ share '02 $4.7 bil $750 mil $3.96/ share This should be a great acquisition for Lucent, NT, or CPQ when they have tremendous leverage of price to book using a share swap. Using a share swap, ASND should see nothing less than $45/ share. Any opinions, Mark