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Biotech / Medical : Oxford Health Plan (OXHP) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robt justine who wrote (365)	12/8/1997 9:17:00 AM
From: Michael Burry	Respond to of 2068

Re: outside sources That's a good quote. I'll take a look at my WSJ this am. Ken Fisher basically espouses the same stuff as his dad did in Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits. Ken just added the "glitch" part to add a margin of safety. In a way, Ken is more a value investor than his father, but both are on the lookout for strong companies. I've actually called several employers to try to ascertain what they think of Oxford as a potential supplier now. I've had trouble getting the right people to talk to me. Both Fishers' approaches suffer from the fact that the lay person has a hard time in today's environment carrying out the due diligence once the numbers line up. Mike

To: robt justine who wrote (365)	12/8/1997 9:35:00 AM
From: Michael Burry	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 2068

More of it: "Still, Oxford enjoys some "profound advantages when it comes down to the in-the-trenches fight in the New York area," said Michael Sass of benefit consultant William M. Mercer which works mostly with large employers. "When you talk to the employee, Oxford is still the [plan] of choice. They have the network that everybody likes." He noted that Aetna Inc., another major player in the metropolitan New York market, also struggled this year, as it sought to merge networks in the wake of its acquisition of U.S. Healthcare Inc. Despite Oxford's third-quarter loss and depressed stock price, Joseph Martingale, principal at Towers Perrin, which also consults with large employers, said he believes the company remains at least as strong financially "than many other HMOs that are being offered to employees without question." While several employers ask him whether Oxford might be forced out of business, he said, "I don't think that's a real risk." Indeed, several consultants pointed out that Oxford's own financial turbulence needn't concern individual subscribers, as long as the managed-care company is able to keep its broad network of doctors and hospitals in place. Consumers would only need to worry, they added, if persistent reimbursement problems caused doctors to stop participating in Oxford's network. "So far, we haven't seen any problems like that," said Buck's Ms. Margolis. " ********** It's an article that starts out bad, ends good. Employers aren't switching because they don't want to deal with unhappy employees, and new ones are still signing up at a minimum 20% growth according to the article. That ain't bad for the stock at these levels. Once the smoke clears and everyone realizes that Oxford is still standing, is paying everyone on time, etc., Oxford will benefit from the fact that the patients like them so much. With everyone focused on the short-term numbers this January, there is opportunity for those willing to look "long term" to January 1999 (it's only a year - though I know these days long term is more like 3 months). During that time you never know when it will recover. I'm not overweighted (10% --> 15%) yet but I will be if it hits $20 again. Mike