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Strategies & Market Trends : The Millennium Crash -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (1761)	12/8/1997 11:52:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 5676

Any reason why equity prices should be 10% higher now then in Aug? 30% higher then April? 50% higher then last year? None IMO. Yet the SPX is at all time high. At this stage, you don't ask why. The market moves are pure technical, not fundemental. I still cannot see the basic valuating difference between Dell and GM. Intel and UTX. I believe that we're now headed towards the Millennium Crash (I plan to start writing the book soon). It's going to be the biggest bear since '29-33 bear, and will probably have the same magnitude of global repercussions. Outlook for second half of '98- end '99 - Big bear in equities in US and Europe. Bottoming anywhere between Dow 800 and Dow 4500 (in the next millennium) - Deflation (caused by overcapacity and reluctance to spend) - Severe recession, recognized 4-6 months after first big market drop. - Major global political shifts resulting. The window of opportunity for the market to drop was Sep-Oct, and is now closed. Next window will open end Jan and close mid Apr '98. The market will have to make use of it, and collapse, otherwise we're gonna see things never seen before even in the greatest bubbles in history (Dow 20000 in two years). The bigger they are... ATG