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Strategies & Market Trends : The Millennium Crash -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Arik T.G. who wrote (1762)	12/8/1997 12:01:00 PM
From: Richard Estes	Respond to of 5676

It is tough when the market doesn't act in accordance with your preconcieved ideas. The only things that count are PRICE & VOLUME. When you look at the market for what it is, rather than what you want it to be. You will have made progress towards reality.

To: Arik T.G. who wrote (1762)	12/8/1997 12:05:00 PM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5676

From Francis Bacon's essay, "Of Youth and Age": "The errors of young men are the ruin of business; but the errors of aged men amount but to this, that more might have been done, or sooner." So here we are, caught between the 29-year-old fund managers and investors, and Alan Greenspan, who has rebuked the stock market but who has done nothing at all to curb the inflation of equity prices, although the Fed has the power to do so.

To: Arik T.G. who wrote (1762)	12/8/1997 11:08:00 PM
From: Stingray	Respond to of 5676

> The market moves are pure technical, not fundemental. You never spoke a truer word. On the surface the market appears to be based on fundamentals because of all the explanations we hear about why the market is moving up (Because interest rates are low, becasue inflation is low, because profits are growing, because the economy is not growing too fast) however the market continues to advance even as it is apparent that profit growth is going to be much smaller next year as companies are unable to raise prices and may face wage pressure. In my monthly phone bill there was an insert asking you to "consider a career at GTE", this is the first time they have tried to recruit via the phone bill and is anecdotal evidence of a tightening labour market.stocks. Stocks still get hammered when they miss earnings estimates so on a micro-economic scale fundamentals do matter - the relative stock price of companies in the same industry does relate to fundamentals, however the total market cap seems to have very little to do with fundamentals, and as long as money keeps pouring in that money has to go somewhere. December at the end of a year when the stock market is up strongly is not normally a time when people think of selling a lot of stock except for losers which seem to be pretty scarce this year. I've heard a couple of people say "I don't want to sell anything more this tax year" and I find myself in that position also. The sellers may not hold back as much in January. April will bring some unexpectedly large tax bills and this could be all it takes to unleash enough tax selling to push the market over the edge.

To: Arik T.G. who wrote (1762)	12/11/1997 10:48:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5676

ATG, your thoughts? Will we make it till April? bb

To: Arik T.G. who wrote (1762)	12/13/1997 2:27:00 PM
From: Tom Trader	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5676

Hi Arik re >>The window of opportunity for the market to drop was Sep-Oct, and is now closed<< Do you mean that because the decline you were expecting did not occur -- the window in effect closed? >>Next window will open end Jan and close mid Apr '98. Presumably this is the same concept then -- in which case do you see the market rallying into January - April time-frame and then a decline of some magnitude. If so, what determines these windows, the lengths and the time-frames?? >>The market will have to make use of it, and collapse, otherwise we're gonna see things never seen before even in the greatest bubbles in history (Dow 20000 in two years)<< Now again, why would it have to occur in these time frames or else we are destined to see a rally of unparalleled proportions?? As always, you know the spirit in which these questions are asked. BTW, your scenario is one that fits into one of the cycles that I understand calls for a major bottom to be established in the mid-98 time-frame and then significant rally that should last well into 1999. This is when some Ellioticians believe that the epi-center of primary wave three will kick in and will cause the most stupendous rally imaginable -- which will create all of the usual elements for a top -- and that will end the bull market. Do you subscribe to this view?? The question for me in relation to this -- if this cycle pans out -- is whether the top in the market has now been seen and we head down into cycle low or whether there is one more rally before the real decline begins. I get the impression that you think that a major top is set to occur in the Jan -April time-frame--am I right?? Regards