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Biotech / Medical : Depotech(depo) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Andreas Helke who wrote (353)12/8/1997 10:37:00 PM
From: Tom D  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 887
 
<<biotech stocks more often than not go down after expected good news>>

Maybe--in that case I'll just hold on. In fact, I think that Miljenko is hoping for something like this to happen.

It has seemed to me that selling off after good news is the rule for early developmental stage biotech companies. However, I have noticed a tendancy for sustained increments in market caps when companies make the transition from developmental to commercialization stage. This is when I like to buy biotechs, because the science has been published, the clinical trials are completed, and its just a matter of waiting for the FDA and the rest of the world to come to recognize what is already obvious to somebody with a modicum of good judgement.

This was happening as recently as several months ago with Neurex and Nexstar. They had brief selloffs and then rose to new highs. They are both below their post-news peaks only in sympathy with the 10-15% decline in the biotech sector in the last month or two.

My own theory is that the biotech sector is in another of its slumps, which will be clearing in a few weeks, if not sooner (due to the January small cap effect combined with the upcoming H&Q conference). It is notable that nothing much is happening to GLIA's stock with only 4 days to go until their advisory committee meeting. Is this a leading indicator for DEPO? Or will DEPO do better than GLIA? I tend to still believe the latter to be true. But if DEPO doesn't go up a lot now, it will have more room for upward movement later, and I'll just wait.

I really have no burning desire to take the money and run from DEPO. I want to do some portfolio balancing. I know that I am ahead of my cost basis on DEPO, so I don't lose any sleep over it.

Best Regards,

Tom D