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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jay who wrote (10553)	12/9/1997 5:53:00 AM
From: Jack Clarke	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18056

JB: "After all the human race has always marched forward (at least so far)." Yes but there has been some terrible destruction along the way. Look at the European cities destroyed during the war. In fact, it wasn't until modern times that industry figured out that they could make money on weapons, and then make more money rebuilding the destruction those weapons caused. With regard to the "doom and gloom" on this thread, I think it simply reflects a rational approach to history and empiric thought. With the stock market at never before seen levels of overvaluation (P/E, price to book, etc), all we know is that such levels have always marked market tops, without exception. So either we are at or near a top of historic note, or we are in a "new era". I don't believe in new eras. To answer your question, I did indeed make a few bucks during the "mini crash" but (unwisely) kept half of my puts waiting for the other shoe to drop. Too bad for me. And, yes, I have missed out on a lot of paper profit during the expansion of the bubble. However, remember, no one in the market has made a penny until his position is liquidated, sold, turned into cash. The profit is illusory until that point. Best regards, Jack

To: Jay who wrote (10553)	12/9/1997 7:53:00 AM
From: eddie r gammon	Respond to of 18056

Yes erg

To: Jay who wrote (10553)	12/9/1997 9:45:00 AM
From: Cynic 2005	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18056

<<do you people ever think positive? >> The biggest positive in our thinking is that we want this bubble to burst sooner than later. It is healthy for things to appreciate at a steady pace. Denial of everything that surfaces against your wish doesn't make you a positive thinker. Whether you accept it or not, the bubble in many 'miracle' economies, including that of the second biggest in the world has already burst. As with US, it is only a matter of time! <<I panicked just a little during the turmoil last month and ended up selling a few of my good stocks at fire-sale prices - all are up over 20% since. The tax hit is going to be another pain. >> I am sure you will realize pretty soon that you did the right thing. Unless ofcourse you bought again yesterday. -g- <<BTW did anyone here make any money during the crash?>> Yes, I did! -Mohan

To: Jay who wrote (10553)	12/9/1997 10:23:00 AM
From: Mike M2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18056

Jay, "Never a depression without a preceeding boom. Never a boom and high prosperity without an outbreak of speculation. Never such a outbreak that has not ended in a financial crisis. Check the speculation in time, and we shall have no serious depression..." Carl Snyder " Capitalism the Creator" p.229 Jay it's much too late to do anything but sit back and watch this bubble burst. We have good reason to be glooomy we understand history and its lesson's too bad the herd does not. Mike Jay read this fame.org

To: Jay who wrote (10553)	12/9/1997 11:22:00 AM
From: Bonnie Bear	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18056

Jay: poor boy. greed is a terrible thing. stock markets should only go up 8% a year, when they go up 30% a year for three years you should get really suspicious that something bad has to happen. If you're really weeping over losing virtual money because you missed staying long through the mother of all short-covering rallies then you should find the daytrader's tread and chat there. staying in for the last ten or fifteen percent has wiped out a lot of investors, because stocks don't wait for you to sell them before they crash. Ask the folks on the oracle thread. you don't make money when you BUY a stock, you make money when you SELL a stock. Be happy that you made money and have to pay taxes. There was a time not too long ago when everybody was bemoaning the tax loss they would take on their tech stocks. Since august, foreign stocks have gone down 50%, gold has plummeted, smallcaps and microcaps have plummeted, there's nothing bullish except a handful of overpriced oversold wall street darlings. and none of them look very bullish today. -eom- and yes, I made money on the crash. you can find my post from the previous Sunday night on the kahuna thread telling Bill it looked like a big kahuna for monday based on Tokyo stock prices.