To: RMF who wrote (55101 ) 10/11/2013 11:27:24 AM From: Brumar89 1 RecommendationRecommended By TimF
Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 85487 Moody’s on Debt Limit: Calling Obama’s Bluff on Default Romina Boccia A voice of reason emerged today among the doomsday predictions over a U.S. government default if the debt limit is not raised by mid-October. The Washington Post reports that Moody’s, a top credit rating service, suggested that hitting the debt limit does not mean the U.S. would default:“We believe the government would continue to pay interest and principal on its debt even in the event that the debt limit is not raised, leaving its creditworthiness intact,” the memo says. “The debt limit restricts government expenditures to the amount of its incoming revenues; it does not prohibit the government from servicing its debt. There is no direct connection between the debt limit (actually the exhaustion of the Treasury’s extraordinary measures to raise funds) and a default.” In recent weeks, President Obama and Treasury Secretary Jack Lew have made the rounds, arguing vociferously that if Congress does not raise the debt limit by October 17, the U.S. could default and “economic chaos” would ensue. The Treasury Department put out an entire report on the damaging consequences of a government default. The President even went so far as to call it an “ economic shutdown ” and began scaring seniors , suggesting that their Social Security benefit checks wouldn’t arrive on time.Unless President Obama deliberately chose to default, there are at least three reasons why the U.S. will not default on its debt:1. Revenues. Treasury will collect more than enough revenue in fiscal year 2014 to meet all debt obligations and most non-debt obligations on an annualized basis. Interest payments consume less than 10 percent of revenues, and even if interest rates rose, the U.S. would still be able to service its debt. 2. Prioritization: The Treasury and President Obama have discretion at the debt limit to prioritize payments in the best interest of the nation . Treasury could hold some cash reserves to ensure debt obligations are met on time, prioritizing debt payment above all other spending. Some non-debt payments would be delayed during a debt limit impasse.3. “Assets.” Nearly one-third of the federal debt subject to the limit consists of intragovernmental debt, or debt which federal agencies have incurred amongst themselves. Redeeming bonds in government trust funds frees up room under the debt limit to borrow additional cash to meet obligations. There is even a trump card. The Full Faith and Credit Act, H.R. 807 , which passed in the House of Representatives, would allow the Treasury to borrow funds as necessary to meet debt obligations . With the risk of default on the debt almost nil, what should lawmakers do on the debt ceiling?The debt limit presents a decisive moment for Congress to take charge of the automatic spending increases that are driving the U.S. spending and debt crisis. Congress should cut spending and reform mandatory programs to put the budget on a path to balance before increasing the debt limit.blog.heritage.org ..... First sponsored in 2011 by California Republican Tom McClintock and Pennsylvania Senator Pat Toomey, the Full Faith and Credit Act is essentially an insurance policy against miscalculation. Their bill certifies that U.S. sovereign debt will always be repaid, on time and in full. If Congress fails to authorize a statutory increase in the debt limit—during a period of, say, intense political conflict over the fisc like the one now—the bill stipulates that Treasury can continue making contractual interest and principal payments to bond holders and rolling over debt with incoming tax payments. Debt service gets the first call on revenue. The McClintock-Toomey bill replicates the guarantees that state constitutions have had for hundreds of years to strengthen investor confidence. It gives the Treasury Secretary discretion to prioritize among other federal obligations until the political deadlock ends, tempers cool and the parties can reach a deal. But it makes his first priority to protect the full faith and credit of the U.S. Yet instead of embracing this insurance against default, Democrats have voted to kill it even as they cry havoc about the risk of default. The House passed McClintock-Toomey in May, but only on a 221 to 207 party-line vote after a raucous debate. The White House issued a formal veto threat , calling it "unwise, unworkable and unacceptably risky." House Republicans have continued to press the measure, attaching it to a continuing resolution last week. But Mr. Reid moved to strip it out, and his motion passed the Senate 54 to 44. The Majority Leader denounced McClintock-Toomey as the "Pay China First Act." Mr. Reid may think that is clever xenophobic political cover, but someone should tell him that millions of Americans have a stake in Treasurys through pension funds, 401(k)s, savings accounts and as individual investors. Two-thirds of U.S. debt is held domestically and the Chinese own roughly 7% to 10%, though who cares who U.S. creditors are if the goal is for the U.S. to reassure its creditors? ...... The U.S. will pay its bills, but a short-term miscalculation is possible. A President who really wants to limit the chance of default would take the GOP up on its Full Faith and Credit offer. Mr. Obama's refusal suggests that his real goal is to go to the edge of default, gambling that he can then either coerce total surrender or blame a default on Republicans and use it to take back control of the House in 2014. This isn't how leaders looking out for the interests of all Americans behave.online.wsj.com