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Technology Stocks : Presstek -- Stock of the Decade?? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: E who wrote (7199)	12/9/1997 2:18:00 PM
From: Nanny	Respond to of 11098

Whoa!!! Where's Pierre on this one? Wasn't he on that conference call LIVE? Oops! I forgot. Pierre only corrects bulls and Pauls not a bull. Never mind!!!

To: E who wrote (7199)	12/9/1997 2:30:00 PM
From: paul abramowitz	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 11098

JM: Assume you are correct, 500 installs as of July. If Heidelberg is installing at rate of 40 per month, than by the end of December, there will be 700 installed presses. Presstek will have shipped them 1000 kits, and thus Heideleber will have 300 kits in inventory, or roughly 8 months worth of inventory, in a technologically sensitive industry. Assuming a continued install rate of 40 per month, the question then becomes, what is the target level of inventory Heidelberg wishes to carry. Assume 60 days (probably high in this "just in time" world. That would mean 80 units in inventory by year end. 40 units a month = 480 years, less 220 excess inventory (300 beginning inv less 80 ending inventory)equal 1998 requirements of 260 units or 22 per month. Looks like sale of Quickmaster kits could decline from 1997 sales of 600 +- kits to 220, a 63 % drop in unit sales. Do you really beleive plate sale and price increases will offset this decline? And this uses optimistic assumptions!