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Technology Stocks : 3Com Corporation (COMS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Dwight E. Karlsen who wrote (11990)12/9/1997 5:50:00 PM
From: Randy Ellingson  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 45548
 
I would be interested in knowing what sales/earnings would have been had the channel inventory not been altered, but allowed to remain at x weeks per product line. My guess is that they would have missed earnings (sluggish modem sales, Asian sales flat), and the stock would have been treated to a similar sell-off as Oracle saw. By actively reducing sales/inventory levels, actual quarterly performance comparison w/prior quarters is impossible. These guys are masters at sleight of hand.

One post here on SI (the day of or after the inventory-reduction press release) said earnings would have been 0.45 without the inventory reduction, but the statement did not cite a source (conference call perhaps?) so take that FWIW (not much). I guess we'll know much more when they actually report.

Randy



To: Dwight E. Karlsen who wrote (11990)12/9/1997 5:59:00 PM
From: Beachbumm  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 45548
 
I think your outline is the only plausible explanation for the relative strength today of COMS. I am really amazed that we're holding up at this level. I keep waiting for the bottom to fall out. Has it already happened? This gives me the sneaky feeling that there is something going on that we don't know about yet.

Beachbumm



To: Dwight E. Karlsen who wrote (11990)12/9/1997 6:43:00 PM
From: SpecialK  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 45548
 
ORCL had its selloff because it came in below expectations, they did not warn.. 3Com has warned, in case you didn't notice from September, it has come down from mid 50s to mid 30s, bigger drop than ORCL.

Good luck with your short, but don't wait too long as earnings come out, it's expected to be bad. People will look forward to increased sales due to ITU standard on 56K modems. They are the leader.

Ketan