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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Yousef who wrote (11317)	12/10/1997 2:39:00 AM
From: FJB	Respond to of 25960

Thanks for the informative post Yousef. Glad to hear your laser is working well. Bob

To: Yousef who wrote (11317)	12/10/1997 3:17:00 AM
From: FJB	Respond to of 25960

Yousef, I have a question regarding the number of tools being shipped by Nikon. In this July 14, 1997 interview with David A. Huchital, president of Nikon Precision, he offered the following guidance regarding 1997 unit shipments. EN: How many deep-UV systems do you expect to be shipping by 1998? Mr. Huchital: "This Japanese fiscal year, April to March, we will do 200 deep-UV systems, steppers and scanners combined. I-line is a little softer number, because it depends on how quickly the Far East recovers, but we will probably ship 300 this year. And next year, who knows, probably more." electronicnews.com; I am assuming he was referring "This Japanese fiscal year" as 1997 considering the date of the interview. Even if he is referring to 1998, the 200 number is 33% above the forecast from the tech. rep. Is Nikon shipping a lot fewer DUV systems than they planned? TIA, Bob

To: Yousef who wrote (11317)	12/10/1997 4:44:00 AM
From: FJB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

Sorry, was your rep. just referring to US shipments? If so, please disregard exchange2000.com. Do you have a guess as to how many DUV tools(stepper and step and scan) Nikon might ship worldwide in '98? Thanks, Bob

To: Yousef who wrote (11317)	12/10/1997 6:27:00 AM
From: ForYourEyesOnly	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

Dear Yousef, Thank you very much for taking the time to update us on your meeting with Nikon. I agree, the prospects do look good for Cymer. I think that we need to keep an eye on the overall growth in the DUV tool market, and growth in the market share of competitors' lasers. Are you currently holding Cymer? What companies are you currently holding/buying? I notice that you post a lot on the AMD thread, might that be your place of work? What are your thoughts on the timing for the implementaion of Cu metallization, and the companies that will win the race for Cu deposition systems? Semitool seems to be positioned well in this market. I know that a few Japanese companies are going to go into ECD, but they should be way behind SMTL. Oh, I should warn you that since your post included some comments that could be interpreted as bearish on CYMI, you may have to face inquisition by the CYMI witch hunting brigade. Be warned! Good luck, and thanks again for your help.... THC

To: Yousef who wrote (11317)	12/10/1997 12:04:00 PM
From: diana g	Respond to of 25960

Thank You, Yousef! Appreciate your report and assessment very much! "They also indicated that there have been problems with Cymer lasers, but Cymer has been working hard to fix these: ..." --I find this much more reassuring than denials that problems exist. Also, it is good to have this information on the competition. A little competition is something to be expected, yes? And Cymi is in a good position from which to compete. Of course, there is doubt about the outcome of competition. We shouldn't be here if not Risk-Tolerant! But I feel much more comfortable about Cymi-working-to-solve-problems,-compete-and move-ahead than the mythical Cymi-has-permanent-monopoly-and- perfect-product. Best Regards, diana

To: Yousef who wrote (11317)	12/10/1997 12:55:00 PM
From: Mr. Aloha	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

Thanks for the information Yousef. This news is a contradiction to everything we've heard. The projections from Nikon are even below Morgan Stanley figures based on Nikon's percentage of DUV equipment sales? I don't believe the information is accurate. This is not an attack on you, I'm just trying to compare what we've heard from a number of sources. I think positive and negative information is important and it pushes us to find answers, whatever it may be. The person you spoke with told you 75-100 tools in '97 and 150 in 1998? >>"Total DUV tool deliveries for '97 will total 75 - 100 tools. Next year, they expect to sell about 50 scanners in the US and a total of 150 tools." I find it HARD to believe that Nikon expects to grow from 75-100 tools in 1997 to 150 in 1998? Using those multiples and the current % of business Nikon represents to the DUV laser industry (CYMER), total DUV laser shipments in 1998 would be approx. 350 units? (370 x 40% = 148). If that were true, the whole .25 micron conversion would be severely hampered? How is the DRAM market going to make money? How are companies going to advance tech.? --------------------- techweb.cmp.com "This year Nikon is expected to lead the industry in step-and-scan system sales, shootint past SVGL. According to some industry experts, Nikon will end up shipping about 150 systems -- nearly double the 80 that sources estimate SVGL -- will ship this year. (I BELIEVE THEY ARE TALKING ABOUT SALES FOR CALENDAR YEAR 1997?) John J. Shamaly, vice president of marketing for Silicon Valley Group, SVGL's parent, won't disclose production levels this year, but said the company is ramping production as fast as possible and expects to deliver 200 step-and-scan systems in 1999. Logic chip makers are now being driven to scanners in order to get higher throughput for their system-on-a-chip products. They can achieve this by patterning two die at a time on a wafer with a single exposure. DRAM producers too will likely be forced to step-and-scan for production of 1-gigabit chips. (Now we're hearing they need to move to .35 and below NOW to cut costs). ------------------------ We're getting reports from independant sources saying the move is happening faster than expected. This news from a Nikon representative is a contradiction. The only answers is, he's clueless or Nikon is lossing market share, big time. This part sounds a little strange? Are they saying that other companies have shipped with Komatsu laser, not Nikon? The wording is odd? Would Cannon tell them who their shipping with or did Komatsu? >>>"but they did say that a number of Japanese tools have been shipped with Komatsu lasers." I wonder who's "Japanese tools" they're talking about? Thanks again for the information. The more the better. Aloha

To: Yousef who wrote (11317)	12/10/1997 4:00:00 PM
From: Mason Barge	Respond to of 25960

<<Hope this helps>> That's the understatement of the year. I can't believe Nikon was so forthright, in fact, but this is extremely helpful for planning purposes.