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Technology Stocks : General Lithography -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Andrew Vance who wrote (714)	12/10/1997 6:46:00 PM
From: Mason Barge	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 1305

To clarify my position, I have little doubt that the sector will come roaring back. I just think that people should realize that prices can go down, and can stay down, for significant periods of time. I guess the ones who really worry me are all the people who were buying Cymer in the (post-split) 40's on the margin and STILL think they made a good buy. So many people act so surprised when the tech sector gets its periodic whipping. Now (actually a couple of weeks ago, duh) is the time to be defensive. When the sector seems to hit a bottom and just sit for a while, I'll be in with both feet. I don't think anyone can time it with any accuracy. But as long as an investor isn't margined, isn't going to need the money for two years, and has some decent diversification, you could hardly argue with a buy-and-hold strategy at this point. Personally I'm going to wait a while, but I might admittedly miss some of the party. The one area I would not advocate a death-grip buy-and-hold would be in litho. There are just too many players with too many competing technologies, and it changes so rapidly. If Sematech can't eliminate a single technology, how in the world is an investor supposed to be able to pick the "winner" at, .08 or .13um? I'd rather go to Vegas than have all my money in JMAR or SVG or CYMI, or even a mask company. A lot of people are going to lose a lot of money on R&D. For all we know, IBM's construction of a synchrotron-based fab may be JMAR's death knell. Well, okay, "death knell" is a little strong since they have a couple of other lines, but who knows? Okay, I've said my piece. I just don't think litho is the place for small investors right now. If someone can hold a stock for 18 months without pain, and is prepared to ride it down (i.e. not margined), fine, pick up some AMAT or NVLS or KLAC or TER or something and put it away, it's a great long-term investment. And maybe the sector will shoot up tomorrow. But it's just as likely that it will deteriorate further. Anyone who is holding a heavily margined account full of stepper stocks because "it's got to come up" soon, or "the chipmakers have to have .18um (or 300mm) equipment or go out of business, and earnings are going to double for sure", is kidding himself.

To: Andrew Vance who wrote (714)	12/11/1997 12:25:00 AM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1305

Hey Andrew, How are you? I've been kicked with my semi-equip calls, but I hold the stocks (ASYT, CFMT, UTEK, WFR). Still have a couple of calls: KLIC, SVGI. I think that we haven't seen the bottom yet and think of buying UTEK puts. I'd prefer to buy puts on weaker companies, but unfortunately they don't have options. I tried to select between ETEC, KLAC and UTEK puts and I guess Art's company's the victim. ;-) It looks like the DD catastrophe, plus semi-equip uncertainty for 1998 will move UTEK lower. Plan to buy more semi-equip shares at lower prices. Watch CFMT tomorrow - might be an opportunity after the earnings report. BTW, regarding WFR - I don't see a reason to buy WFR stock. WFR year 2000 $20 LEAPS are so cheap that stock is no bargain. If it does not get out of the dumpster until year 2000, it won't get out of it. Good luck Raimondas P.S. Buying NKE - how about that? ;-)

To: Andrew Vance who wrote (714)	12/12/1997 9:37:00 AM
From: Mason Barge	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1305

I know we're all hoping for at least a little rebound this year, but the mid-term picture took another bad turn today: techweb.cmp.com I hate to be the doom and gloom guy all the time, but it doesn't look like the Taiwanese DRAM shops are going to have capital to spend. No matter how much theoretical sense it makes to stay on the cutting edge, the realities of finance could impact some capital spending. How would you like to be a banker and have a DRAM fab come to you and say, "well, not only have we not recovered the capitalization of our current state-of-the-art facility, we're losing money on it, but we need a new one to stay on the cutting edge and remain competitive?" I have a feeling that some of the Asian financial crises have been caused by governments or consortia pressuring banks to finance capital expansion under just such circumstances, and the IMF isn't going to allow it any longer. Well, it's great for us consumers. I'm going to upgrade to 64mb right after Christmas. Andrew: Please tell me if these kinds of posts are not appropriate for this thread. It has always been excellent, but much more oriented towards the strict technical side, and I don't want to irritate anyone by posting off-topic. I think this is your call.

To: Andrew Vance who wrote (714)	12/30/1997 9:51:00 AM
From: Mason Barge	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1305

A short but rather somber article from Investors' Business Daily: aol://4344:504.p1aesgra.517856.567915368 If those of you without AOL accounts can't follow the link (sorry but you can't copy text from the IBD) I'll summarize. Basically, it reinforces something all of us realize, i.e., an announcement that Japanese chipmakers are planning to spend less on semi equipment.

To: Andrew Vance who wrote (714)	12/31/1997 10:59:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1305

Happy new year Andrew (and all), Andrew, Could you provide a quick summary of the pros and cons of skipping a generation? techweb.cmp.com This is not intuitive to me... Thanks, Ian. Intel may skip generations Intel will probably skip the 0.15-micron generation, now scheduled for 2001 on the SIA technology roadmap. Intel's technology strategy chief, Paolo Gargini, tells Jack Robertson of Semiconductor Business News this process generation was put into the roadmap "primarily as an interim stage for DRAM producers." Logic device vendors, he says, "can stay on the time line through die shrinks using 0.18-micron processes." He says almost any 0.18-micron logic device can be extended to 0.13 micron before new design rules are needed. One candidate is Intel's 64-bit Merced microprocessor, which will begin with a design using 0.18-micron rules. It is likely to hike Merced density and speed by design shrinks using 0.18-micron rules through 2005.