To: Francois H. Gaston who wrote (819 ) 12/11/1997 2:41:00 AM From: Noblesse Oblige Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1671
Hi Francois, You should be extremely careful in using mechanical systems to determine "fair" stock prices. Although no one knows for certain if and when (and who!) Simula will first sign another ITS contract with, any significant signing will have a dramatic impact on the stock. I had reason to speak to a gentleman at NHTSA yesterday, in the "Office of Crash Standards." He was most helpful, and opined to me that the ITS tests far exceeded what NHTSA expected in terms of side-impact head protection. He went on to say that based on his understanding of the auto business, he would expect virtually *all* high-end manufacturers to use an advanced system for auto user protection. Moreover, he further indicated that the only significant testing of which he was aware was in the BMW...and obviously, that's us. From what I could gather, he was still expecting that the new Federal Register commentary regarding testing requirements will be out early in 1998, and he unilaterally told me "not to worry", BMW will be in compliance with the new Regs. I know it is often difficult to wait for something to happen when you are so far *ahead* of the curve, but the American public will *demand* better protection (just as they did with frontal airbags, which penetrated the market much more quickly than NHTSA expected because of consumer preference) and the market (or a great portion of it) will eventually move in our direction. I myself will be leasing a BMW based on this technology, and in my most recent visit to the showroom (something I recommend for all 'thread' readers) it was finally obvious that the salesmen knew all about ITS, its potential, the timing of the various rollouts, and so forth. In fact, on my visit yesterday, the salesman told me that he had to attend "school" to learn the full capabilities of the system. I am expecting that BMW will double advertising and marketing expenses in 1998, as they are getting a very positive feedback on the ITS line. In addition, the recent accident in which a young woman in a BMW was hit from the side in a serious accident is currently under study by NHTSA. A report should be out within the next month or so, further raising Simula's visibility. Just be patient, folks...the company is adequately financed, on the way to straightening out some of its unfortunate 1997 problems, and daily getting closer to that time when Standard 201 *HAS* to be met by the American automobile industry. Don't get fooled by the tax selling or the shorting that goes on to arbitrage the debentures. Keep your eye on the ball.