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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: koan who wrote (764274)1/17/2014 12:24:12 AM
From: Bilow  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 1573731
 
Hi koan; Re: "How can you just set aside all the scientific study? How does one ignore facts like you do.";

No, we pretty much agree on the science. Where we disagree is on the "catastrophic".

I showed you that the "97.1%" was climate scientists who agreed that man caused global warming. I agree with that.

But if you want to change society (by the way, to make it more like you thought it should be *before* global warming was discovered, LOL), you need to show that global warming is "catastrophic". Without that, there is no political motivation for action.

So go ahead, link me to the study which shows that scientists believe global warming is "catastrophic".

If you can't find one, I *can* find a study which shows that scientists believe that global warming is *not* catastrophic.

-- Carl



To: koan who wrote (764274)1/17/2014 12:58:28 AM
From: Bilow  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 1573731
 
Hi koan; Re: "Heat not only adds water, it expands water, which equals flooding.";

Coastal cities have been getting flooded for thousands of years. Thousands of years from now they'll still get flooded. The reason is obvious to anyone. Coastal cities are built on the "coasts". And as the ocean goes up and down, coastal cities get flooded or end up having to move to stay next to the water. Kids who build sandcastles next to the ocean get flooded too. The ocean moves up and down. It's been doing this for billions of years before humans were around to care about it and it's going to keep doing it for billions of years.

Anyone who reads history knows that flooding started happening a very long time before CO2 levels rose. For you to bring it up just shows how sad your evidence is.

Sea level has been rising for around 200 years so it started *before* the CO2 levels exploded. It's a lot easier to get accurate values for sealevel from 200 years ago than temperatures because sealevel is something that's at least approximately shared all over the planet. Temperatures, on the other hand, change from place to place quite a lot. So our sealevel data is very good going back quite some time. And the sea level data does not show that the present is in any way different from sealevel rises of the past.

In particular, there is no indication of any recent acceleration. From the wikipedia article, I'm including a peer reviewed chart of sea level rise. Since you're an idiot, I've added black lines showing that the recent sea level rise has the same slope (how much the sea rises each year) as the sea-level rise back during the 30-year period from 1930 to 1960 (before the big CO2 rises of the 1960s):


What's more, we're in roughly the same part of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation as the 1930-1960 period. So we are likely to have another 15 years of sea level rise at the same rate we see now, followed by a slow down, just as there was a slowdown starting around 1960.

Here's a peer reviewed article from U. Colorado's division that specializes in analyzing sea level that agrees with exactly what I've said above. The 60-year oscillation means that the rise that began in 1930 was repeated 60 years later, right on schedule, in 1990. And the slow down in sea level rise that started around 1960 will appear again 60 years later, around 2020.

Is there a 60-year oscillation in global mean sea level?
Chambers, Merrifield and Nerem
Geophysical Research Letters 39, 18 (2012)
...
We find that there is a significant oscillation with a period around 60-years in the majority of the tide gauges examined during the 20th Century, and that it appears in every ocean basin.
...
Although the tide gauge data are still too limited, both in time and space, to determine conclusively that there is a 60-year oscillation in GMSL [global mean sea level], the possibility should be considered when attempting to interpret the acceleration in the rate of global and regional mean sea level rise.

sealevel.colorado.edu

-- Carl