Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom Trader who wrote (15456)	12/11/1997 6:55:00 AM
From: bob wallace	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Tom - haven't spoken with you for a bit, but I notice from your posts we are both in the same camp - I believe you will get your sharper downturn, and I am not just talking about today in any event, I am wondering if you could help me identify who the "commercial hedgers" are who trade the s&p 500 futures. why would they be long, and why would they be short. I assume that speculators are people like yourself, and large speculators are institutions like mutual funds - I can identify (I think) their reasons for being long or short. Also, would you know which commercial hedgers would trade in the mini s&p contact - somehow that seems conflicted to me <G>

To: Tom Trader who wrote (15456)	12/11/1997 9:35:00 AM
From: Jerry Olson	Respond to of 50167

Good Morning TOM<g>.. The single fundamental change that has me seriously concerned, is that the spill over into ALL sectors could have a tricle down effect, or as JUDY says food chain effect of far reaching ramifications... Several weeks ago I was very bullish in general..I liked the feel of the rally...Korea wasn't a complete surprise to me, re: co's doing biz there, but I never thought how SERIOUS the fallout would be to ALL areas of the markets... The far reaching negative effects on the techs, banks, and ANY co. doing biz there will spill over into OTHER countries and areas as well..A snowball effect that will be devistating to those co's... Just based on my on stream of info, things are getting very bad at this moment and on DOWN the road....I feel there IS NO GOOD ENTRY points in any of these stocks at this time...The future Q's could be EVEN WORSE than has been predicted... The bail out of Korea may not work at all, no guarantees...Other Asian Countries can fall dramatically in conjuction with this ripple effect...I should have stuck to my guns when I said "The Semis are DEAD"...Judy laughed because I waffeled the very next day...But INTC did warn!!! And the food chain starts at the top.... If it were me???, I would not buy 1 tech stock at this juncture..They could be a lot cheaper in 2-3 months, that would make you a lot happier<g>...Have they settleed yet??? reached a bottom??? are they oversold???? Yeah they'll bounce & then drop dead..... This literally could in fact be a precursor of a bear market..Would it surprise you???? I said this before 2 things will stop this market cold...AG raising rates and lackluster Corp Profits...Yeah the economy will slow even more now, rates won't go up, but profits will PLUMMET!!! Bad TOM, very Bad...IMO...worse than if rates got bumped up!!! I'm fully hedged in my shares, sold calls, and bought puts...but I'm just not comfortable playing the downside...Hey I can & will change.. Hugh downgrades will flow now at brake neck speed...watch!!! Anyway all in all not a pretty picture for the tech sector, or for that matter any sector, with the exception of local US based co's... Home Depot anyone???? See ya TOM, My Regards, Jerry