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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (3706)	12/11/1997 10:20:00 AM
From: Thomas J Pittman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Re:I bought LOW, but I didn't sell HIGH.....I might sell some HIGH the next time. Cary, I bought LOW, but didn't sell HIGH either though I did sell some. What a drag. Live and Learn I guess. My question: do you wish that you had....I dont mean to ask if you wished you had made all the money possible, i mean do you wish you had been more like a trader or are you committed to more of a buy and hold. How will you know when to sell. In my case, I was greedy up at the peak. For example, I had written notes to myself that I should have sold 1/2 lrcx position at 60 since i viewed that valuation as near the upper end of a fair value range given the earnings bagley had projected. But I did not. We blew through it so fast, i did not even bother to put a stop loss order at 60. Now i sit back at 30 or less still with a small gain, but knowing that based on my own strategy, i failed to execute because it made me feel 'like a trader' due to the speed of the rise. This is giving me a complex.......but hey. i have some cash but expect to be holding the trigger for awhile. J

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (3706)	12/11/1997 10:21:00 AM
From: BearBull	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Cary, AMAT is close to $25. Do you think it's a buy opportunity? But the Tech market just starts the down trend.

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (3706)	12/11/1997 1:22:00 PM
From: Joe Tokarz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Cary, I too bought low and never sold high. I have sold most of my 2nd tier semi-equips. to protect capital and increase my cash position for future 'bargains'. I thought it might be interesting to compare this 'downdraft' with that of the '95-'96 decline. I would hope to create some discussion as to establishing a buy / sell strategy. Do you feel we will approach the lows of July '96? Correct me if I am wrong, but weren't earnings in '96 higher than they have been in '97 for most of the semi-equips? (I don't have this info. before me and am working from memory...oh oh) Stock prices for these companies sky-rocketed as the street anticipated better earnings in '98 forward. Given that conditions are now 'cloudy' and the appearance of order delays, could the old lows be breached? ...or approached? Joe