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To: James H. Irwin who wrote (24743)12/11/1997 12:46:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 176387
 
Jim, the point I was trying to make is that using a stock price as a criterion for exiting the position is foolish. Here's why:

Suppose you buy XYZ at $100. The fundamentals look good. Along comes the Asian flu and the price drops to $85. You check with the company and find that they have very slight Asian exposure in terms of sales, but they buy a significant amount of components from Asian suppliers. If the stock was a good buy at $100, and if anything the fundamentals have improved, why sell at $85? It can only be because you are convinced that the price will continue to drop, and what would lead you to that conclusion.

The idea of cutting your losses is good if you know the losses will continue. In my opinion, that may be a good bet if the industry and/or company fundamentals have eroded. For example, I was a long term holder of Seagate (my entry point was about $12), and saw the stock rise to about $56 this summer. Reports began to emerge that oversupply was hitting the dd's. The more I read, the more convinced I became that this problem was real, and likely to last for a significant period of time. I exited at about $47.

I'm holding stocks in my portfolio that I've owned for about 35 years.

Regards,

Paul