ANR, CHK, DO, EDCLq.L, FET, LNG, NBL, PRE.TO, PTEN, STL.OL, QGEP3.SA, TDW, TSO, WFT,
LatAm Oil
Alpha Natural Resources (ANR)
Upgrade to Neutral, Not Many Negative Surprises Left
6 February 2014 ¦ 11 pages ir.citi.com
We are upgrading ANR to Neutral/High Risk from Sell following the YTD price
decline of 28%, a sharp drop in consensus estimates, and likely low investor
expectations. Our target remains at $5.20/sh. While we estimate that the
company needs at least $170/T benchmark HCC to breakeven on a free-cash-
flow basis, ANR possess sufficient liquidity with cash and securities of $1.0 bln at
the end of 3Q.
Chesapeake Energy Corp (CHK)
2014 Oil Guidance Disappoints But Transformation In Full Swing
7 February 2014 ¦ 17 pages ir.citi.com
Chesapeake provided initial 2014 guidance wherein total “organic” production
growth is projected at 8-10%, or above our prior 5% projection. However, crude
oil production is expected to be 113-118 MBbls/d, up 8-12% over 2013, vs. our
prior forecast of 133 MBbls/d. NGL volumes should be 79-81 MBbls/d, up 44-
49% yr/yr and vs. our prior 64 MBbl/d outlook, and natural gas ~2.9-3.0 MMcf/d,
up 4-6% yr/yr and vs. our prior 2.84 MMcf/d forecast.
Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc (DO)
Reducing Estimates on More Conservative Utilization Forecast
6 February 2014 ¦ 14 pages ir.citi.com
Eurasia Drilling (EDCLq.L)
Three Reasons to Curb Your Enthusiasm – Too Early to Step In
6 February 2014 ¦ 23 pages ir.citi.com
Forum Energy Technologies, Inc. (FET)
2014, Here We Come
07 February 2014 sendspace.com
Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG)
Go LoNG, but Don't Expect an Olympic Run
10 February 2014 sendspace.com
Noble Energy Inc (NBL)
Q4’13 Wrap-Up: Bottom-Line Beat; with a Leviathan – Woodside JV Encore Post Results
7 February 2014 ¦ 16 pages ir.citi.com
Noble Energy (NBL)
Leviathan Monetization: A 'Funder' from 'Down Under': Part Deux
07 February 2014 sendspace.com
Pacific Rubiales (PRE.TO)
Q4 guidance confirms significant growth, but hints of a slight miss vs. Citi’s estimates
6 February 2014 ¦ 9 pages ir.citi.com
We estimate PRE’s Q4 EBITDA could miss our US$700m estimate by 2%-6%
based on the company’s latest updates. Nonetheless, PRE’s Q4 guidance
implies a strong EBITDA growth of at least 19% YoY and 9% QoQ, based on the
low-end of PRE’s guidance. The company estimates Q4 production ranged from
132kb/d to 134kb/d, in line with our 133kb/d estimate. However, we were
disappointed by the low expected realization price of US$94-US$96/boe, vs. our
estimates of US$102/boe.
Patterson-UTI Energy (PTEN)
Boosting EPS Estimates on Improving Outlook for U.S. Drilling
6 February 2014 ¦ 14 pages ir.citi.com
PTEN continues to transform its fleet through the accelerated introduction of its
APEX new generation drilling rigs with AC power systems. With 124 APEX rigs in
operation and 20 new APEX rigs under construction, the company is taking full
advantage of this growing segment of the market. We have raised our earnings
estimates for 2014 and 2015 and we introduce our 2016 EPS estimate of $2.15.
We have raised our price target on PTEN shares from $31 to $35 on our new EPS estimates.
Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. (PTEN)
Boom. Optimism Rules
6 February 2014 sendspace.com
Our TP goes to $32 and our 2014 EPS increases to $1.44 from $1.04; initiate 2015 EPS at $1.82.
QGEP (QGEP3.SA)
Atlanta formation test improves outlook for the company's next production development
6 February 2014 ¦ 8 pages ir.citi.com
QGEP completed a formation test in the Atlanta heavy oil field, located in the
offshore Santos basin. QGEP's management believes the test, excluding the
restrictions, confirmed expectations of initial productivity per well to be near the
top of its 6-12kbd/d guidance, which is well above our 4kb/d estimate. In spite of
last year's widespread disappointment with Brazilian E&P, we expect the stock to
react well to the news in Atlanta.
Statoil (STL.OL)
Creating a better balance
Maintain Neutral / TP unchanged:
7 February 2014 sendspace.com
Tidewater Inc. (TDW)
This Is the Pause That Refreshes; Resetting Expectations
7 February 2014 ¦ 16 pages ir.citi.com
TDW posted a disappointing quarter. We have reduced our estimates and price
target but believe the next few quarters will put this earnings report in its proper
context. We believe the market has misperceived the implications of the recent
negative newsflow on the cycle. We consider the turbulence only a pause
signifying slower but ongoing growth. We expect shares to recover and reward
long-term-focused investors. We continue to see TDW as the conservative, low-
beta way to play the OSV sector.
Tesoro Corporation (TSO)
6 February 2014 ¦ 10 pages ir.citi.com
EPS Miss on California & Retail Margins; Maintain Buy
Weatherford International, Inc. (WFT)
Culture Change
7 February 2014 sendspace.com
----
LatAm Oil
Learnings from LAIC
07 February 2014 sendspace.com
1,000 investors, 300 speakers, 120 companies. This week Credit Suisse
held its Latin America Investment Conference (LAIC), with participation of
around 1,000 investors and over 300 speakers from more than 120
corporates, government, consultants and law firms during three days. In the
Oil / Petrochemical / Fuel Distribution space, we hosted two panels with ex-
Petrobras CEOs, and three CEOs/Directors of the leading Brazilian drilling
contractors. For 1x1 meetings of the listed-players, we brought Braskem,
HRT, Petrobras, QGEP and Ultrapar. |
