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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pyslent who wrote (165625)	2/7/2014 4:42:19 PM
From: MGV	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 213177

Yes, right now, the "luxury" segment of the cell phone market is just huge compared to historical norms. Maybe that's sustainable? I think it is sustainable. It is a much less expensive display of "standing" than a car for those who associate standing with material goods, ie most of the world.

To: pyslent who wrote (165625)

2/7/2014 8:44:25 PM

From: pyslent

Respond to of 213177

The "luxury" segment of the cell phone market is just huge compared to historical norms.

In trying to get a handle on historical norms for premium handsets, I was reminded of Nokia's "Burning Platform" memo:

In 2008, Apple’s market share in the $300+ price range was 25 percent; by 2010 it escalated to 61 percent. They are enjoying a tremendous growth trajectory with a 78 percent earnings growth year over year in Q4 2010. Apple demonstrated that if designed well, consumers would buy a high-priced phone with a great experience and developers would build applications. They changed the game, and today, Apple owns the high-end range.

Given Apple's sales numbers from 2008 and 2010, Elop's share estimates tells us the total pool size of >$300 handsets at that time, which represented less than 5% of the total handsets sold those 2 years. In 2013, Apple alone accounted for more than 8.5% of total handsets shipped, and if you add in the estimated 100M Galaxy shipments, we come to a high end share of at least 14%.

CY	iPhone sales	iPhone's share of $300+ handsets	Total $300+ handsets	High end market (% total handsets)
2008	13.7M	25%	54.8M	4.4%
2010	47.5M	60%	79.2M	4.9%
2013	153.5M	?	?	Apple alone ~8.5% Apple + Galaxies ~14%