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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Juniper who wrote (3716)	12/11/1997 12:47:00 PM
From: Juniper	Respond to of 10921

I found a commentary by Carl Johnson that I haven't seen posted, dated Dec 5. techweb.com Does anyone have a table of semiequip companies with their exposure to SEA? I'm itching to buy, but looking for good reasons not to do so, first.

To: Juniper who wrote (3716)	12/11/1997 12:47:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

J, Asian Turmoil: Key cause, IMO, is essentially a banking system gone wrong. Loans made and guaranteed by governments which destroyed the self correcting mechanism of the risk reward system. Now being corrected by the round of bankruptcies in that reasons. Those that made unwise investments are being allowed the privilege of paying the price. I believe that the central bankers have sufficient knowledge, experience and resolve to ensure that monetary problems don't spiral out of control. (probability about 0.7) Longterm for chip equipment companies: nothing has changed. Now is not the time to increase debt (including margin, selling puts, etc). We're getting back to the valuations that started this thread in the first place. Cary, How about another list of entry point prices based upon pure value? Ian.

To: Juniper who wrote (3716)	12/11/1997 12:52:00 PM
From: Teri Skogerboe	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Juniper, My understanding is that the SE Asian countries have been giving loans based not on supply and demand (business logic), but on cronyism (relatives, and/or the good-ole-boy system, and Nationalism), meaning for instance, that they may have financed the building of a fab for DRAMs on which the owner of the fab may not make money. Further, this had made their financial system a disaster. I think what it will take to stabilize is: a great deal of belt-tightening/austerity system and a complete re-vamping and re-thinking of their financial system -- loans should be based on business sense, not, "oh, you're the President's wife, so you get the loan." Also, if they will change to a market based philosophy, I feel it will make this game (the semis, semi-equips) easier to understand, because when pricing goes to he!! on chips, chip makers would pull in their horns and not build fabs as quickly, until Supply/Demand would become more balanced. My opinion only. Near-term, the semi-equips will probably not perform so well (duh?!, as if we haven't noticed), because their customers are suffering. Long term, more and more chips is the wave of the future, so they'll do well. Regards, Teri PS. At some point, the semi-equips have been priced for doom and gloom, and that's the million dollar question. Someone, please ring a bell when we hit "no brainer" prices.