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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Teri Skogerboe who wrote (3719)	12/11/1997 2:43:00 PM
From: geoffrey Wren	Respond to of 10921

Teri, I agree with your analysis 100%. The rapid obsolescence of equipment would mean that it does not really matter that much that we have too much equipment in place now. The demand for products will have new chips built somewhere with new equipment, just maybe not in Korea. The real issue is demand for future chips. It is true that until someone shows up to pick up the slack in production for future chips it will be ugly. Short term psychology is against us now, and there will be portfoliio dressing selling and tax selling in the month of December as well. And once prices do rebound there will be a lot more people who will sell on modest profits, holding the prices down. Still, if I had the money I'd be adding to my COHR and SMTL positions toward the end of this month. I wonder if now might not be a good time to buy memory chip makers such as MU at $23 1/8, PE of 17, PSR of 1.5, cash of $4.67. With its competitors cut off from financing, they may be able to earn a high margin down the road with the new memory chips (256k and up). I will have to check out that thread, as this seems a possibility. Happy holidays to all. GTW

To: Teri Skogerboe who wrote (3719)	12/11/1997 8:51:00 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

<Also, if they will change to a market based philosophy, I feel it will make this game (the semis, semi-equips) easier to understand, because when pricing goes to he!! on chips, chip makers would pull in their horns and not build fabs as quickly, until Supply/Demand would become more balanced.> This is an ongoing phenom everywhere, although probebly more pronounced in your example...even economically competitive markets misappropriate capital because it "looks right" and "rational" at the time...look at the takeover in the oils late 70's early 80's for one...examples are endless. Hell look at the, uh, banks NOW! hahaha Just a prediction there. Anyway... it happends all the time. Many very smart people argue that the current love affair with "paper assets" will end badly...I don't know too many people who don't think that you absolutley MUST be in stocks! Its become "obvious".... I find it interesting. DAK