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Pastimes : Richard Ney and the Wall Street Gang -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ccryder who wrote (44)	12/12/1997 3:58:00 AM
From: BenYeung	Respond to of 492

Just heard the Ney Update, he is expecting further decline tomorrow and set up a Black Monday, and possibly a Black Tuesday if Greenspan raise rates. Ney rarely goes that bearish (and using the word Black Monday) and thats scares me. My margins are pretty bad right now, I dont think that I could handle another plunge. BUT THEN that signals another good bull market. He is expecting the rebound so fast that most investors would not be able to buy at the lows (and too scared to buy after the Oct 27 thing) JBIL had huge volume today. I guess that MMs of JBIL accomplished its covering and buying. (3 times now) The 550 point trading halt rule probably limited specialists' ability to accomplish its objective, and too much investors were buying at the lows that took out a chunk of profits from the insiders. SO, IF A SECOND CRASH HAPPENS, it means that they are doing it twice to accomplish what it couldnt do at one day. So do something to hedge your positions. I prefer in-the-money covered calls. If a crash happens, great...you make a profit on a plunge but still keep your stocks (assuming that you ll buy back the call). If not...you get your stocks called out, but still better than watching your stocks plunge and LOSING MONEY. I am not going to post similar messages on the JBIL thread because guys like Rob, patroller...dont seem to get the point. They always talk about how bad the currency is, how much growth JBIL will have, how OTHER COMPANIES' earnings and news affect JBIL...that is completely bullsh+t. It is stocks that we talk about here, not the company. The company probably did not change a bit when the stock shot up to 72, or when it dropped down to 39. They still make products as usual, and trying to pump up their bottom line. Mark my words for it, if earnings are lower than estimates AND THE STOCK DO NOT MOVE DOWN THE NEXT DAY, you wont see big volumes. IF STOCK MOVES DOWNWARDS, YOU LL SEE INCREASING VOLUME by primarily sellers. You know what is bullsh+t, Wall Street is using foreign market plunging as an excuse to drop the US stocks. BUT I thought foreign markets look at the DJIA as a gauge, not the other way around. (My grandpa was a trader in HK prior to 87', he told me that HK market used DJIA as the gauge) U know what is also bullcrap? The Street usually use econ data to play with investors. Remember last week when job data came out, the new wire said that investors "ignored" data and kept buying...what is that crap about? And what about when the Fed raise rates to SLOW DOWN ECONOMY? And now the economy is slowed down by itself without any interest rate interference in the last 7 months??? What is wrong with the Fed? It clearly shows that interest rate has NOTHING or LITTLE to affect the economy. The Street use interest rate (helped by the Fed) to command its function. But did I tell you that I got in JBIL at 67 bucks. I still regret that I did not use Ney's advice (dont buy any stock unless its 30%+ off its highs). I did ignore his advice when I decide to get in the momentum. Now I am paying for it. Also, I am also margined more heavily than I did before (Ney discourage the use of margins, and letting your broker to name your stocks in street name) My other holding, SBUX, has its own movements. It reacts differently than other stocks. It rises slow but drops slow. And it moves almost independent from the averages. I bought at 38 in Oct, it went up a bit and started going down, and it bottomed after the DOW (I believe, I cant remember). And then it released earnings and upgraded, and rallied to 39. Then it stopped regardless of the tech stock rally. And today, ignoring huge volume in other stocks, it barely moved and has less than average volume. Once again, it proves that its not buying/selling that push up/down prices, but a up/down price that cause buying/selling. I think I learned my lesson in these two months the most. Alot of Ney's theory DO WORK (some dont work all the time). I just have to use them PLUS my judgment because he is NOT the market. I have to watch my stocks and learn MY SPECIALISTS'/MMS' behavior. Very best luck to you. I am going to wake up early tomorrow to watch my stocks and put some kind of hedge over it....which means I have to wake up in 5 hours... Sincerely yours, Ben Yeung

To: ccryder who wrote (44)	12/12/1997 6:01:00 AM
From: BenYeung	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 492

Yahoo started to have daily charts, and their whole Finance section has been remodeled pretty nicely. I have a hard time going to sleep (called Margin Call Syndrome). So I am posting these couple thoughts: I personally kinda disagree to Ney's prediction of next week. First, Thursday's volume in SOME stocks are big enuff to show that MM/S will conduct some kind of rally on Friday (today). Second, Fed will not increase rate because results could be disasterous. The ones that has to raise rates are the troubled Asian countries, not us. My conclusion is that the big down day will not be next Monday, but sometime in Dec or early Jan. I still think that we will see new high by end of Jan. IBM was downgraded Thursday by Merrill due to the Asian bullsh+t. Remember, IBM was the first Dow stock to make a new high last week at 113. But it is now downgraded when its trading at 106 on Wednesday, down to 101 toady? This is to prove that the downgrade does not come UNTIL THE PRICES ARE LOWER. Say, Merrill did not downgrade when its at the highs, but when its off the high (to minimize selling until prices are lower) Another thing, IBD just has an article about how the semiconductor sales went up 12% from 1996. Asia sales DID slow down, but other countries' sales compensate. So now, WHO IS SAYING THAT TECH COMPANIES ARE SLOWING DOWN??? When somebody loses, somebody has to win. Thanks for the stock tips, but I am in no shape to buy any new stocks. Maybe I can use some later. How large is your portfolio, if you dont mind me asking?