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To: John F. Poteraske who wrote (584)12/12/1997 4:12:00 AM
From: Jeff Bond  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 886
 
OFF TOPIC -

John,

Surface look at SFAM was pretty nice, based on:

1. P/E is very attractive compared to industry
2. debt/equity = o
3. book/share = $11.38
4. sale growth %(1 yr) = 35.5% vs. industry 15.9%
5. Pirce/sales ratio = 1.57 vs. 1.54 (let's call this a wash)
6. Net % Margin = 11.6% vs. 5.9%

It makes me want to dig a little deeper based on:

1. Komag and AMD are 25% of their total business
2. Future earnings growth % is low compared to industry average
3. ROE = 13.2 vs. 20.9 (why is this so far off?)

It appears there is more to be happy with, than sad about. However, I did not get a chance to look at the news yet, or SEC filings. If these show no real killers waiting to occur, then I think you have a nice opportunity with SFAM. I think they should be working hard to make ROE higher; the low number may suggest the company is used to living well, and locked in that mindset. I also consider it important for SFAM to diversy it's customer base, working to develop a lower dependence (25%) on Komag and AMD.

I cannot offer anything else at the time, but in light of current activity, my guess is there is time to think about this for a little while.

Regards, JB

P.S. IBD is hard to beat, 3-years of morning doorstep delivery makes it even better.



To: John F. Poteraske who wrote (584)12/14/1997 9:08:00 PM
From: Todd D. Wiener  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 886
 
John-

KELL has institutional ownership of about 50%. I don't care much for its financials, though. Low current ratio and high debt. Not terribly cheap, either.

I have had UPUP (United Payors & Providers) on my watch list for a month or two. I haven't had a chance to do much research on it, because I've been busy losing money on my chip-equip stocks!

Speaking of the devils, I'd recommend waiting a bit on SFAM and other equip stocks. Although they are very cheap, even considering a slowing in business for 1998, they may fall some more. SFAM just broke a major support level, and most chip-equip stocks are close to 52-wk. lows. In a few months, they will have bottomed and will be safe to accumulate. Unfortunately, I pre-empted this bottoming pattern. Regardless, many of these companies are fundamentally sound and have great prospects. It just might be wise to wait until Wall Street begins to agree.

Todd