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Technology Stocks : Atmel - the trend is about to change -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: hpeace who wrote (7557)	12/11/1997 11:27:00 PM
From: Vikas	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13565

After the last semiconductor mini-bear market in July of 1996, companies who just made their expectations for earnings saw their stocks soar. During the next 6 months, I would guess that this same type of dilemma will unfold. Small investors are running for the exits because they're scared to death about the Asian situation (and also to offset some gains they may have secured earlier in the year). Institutions are running for the exits because they know the small investor will drive stock prices down further (the institutions will be there to catch the bottom after the small folks have lost their shirts). And mutual fund managers, in addition to the previous 2 reasons, are also dumping for the so-called "window dressing" concept (secure gains and don't hold the losers and collect fat bonus checks for their performance). One thing that everyone should realize is that after this "window dressing" period, there comes an opposite event called, interestingly enough, the "January effect". Here, the small investor who dumped in December wants to get back into the good, but beaten down, companies. Institutions want to get in before the rest of us. And mutual fund managers need to start the search for stocks which have the greatest potential for rising during the year (thus allowing these guys to collect another bonus check at the end of the year again). It may be surprising, but this cycle seems to occur again and again every year (not a guarantee, just a pattern). How does it affect Atmel? If they go on to meet estimates for Q4 (Asian crisis and all), expect the stock to cycle upward to the 30s again. In my experience, Atmel always meets or beats estimates if they don't warn ahead of time...2 1/2 weeks left to find out if they do. Vikas

To: hpeace who wrote (7557)	12/12/1997 7:56:00 PM
From: Vikas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13565

Atmel's exposure to Asia is 43%. 10% of their Asian exposure is to Korea. This amounts to a 4.3% overall exposure to Korea. Hence, if they lose half their expected revenue from the Korean region, it would be a 2.15% overall hit. Vikas

To: hpeace who wrote (7557)	12/14/1997 9:49:00 AM
From: William L. Molair II	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13565

Steve, With only a few weeks left in the quarter - you would think that ATML would preannounce good/bad at this point. The stock has been hammered. Company should come out and confirm the Street's fears (to avoid a surprise in January) or, come out and help protect the investors - we are going to meet expectations. My guess, is that ATML will come close to meeting expectations for this quarter - but, is uncertain about the future. Hope they haven't been passing info to the analysts all along, only to let the small guys twist in the wind!