56k modem article:
Computers & Technology Will 56K-Modem Standard Kick Sales
Into High Gear?
by Nick Turner
Dec 11 1997 11:49AM CST, Investor's Business Daily
The battle was fierce, if short-lived. Now both sides claim victory.
The International Telecommunications Union appears ready to establish specifications
for 56-kilobit-per-second modems. It looks like the result will bridge the technology of
rival camps -one led by networking giant 3Com Corp. and the other by chipmaker
Rockwell Semiconductor Systems.
For modem makers, the decision should force them to tweak, though only slightly, development
of their new modems to comply. For those who already own 56K modems, free software should
be available to make sure their devices fit the standard. And overall, setting a standard should
spark more 56K modem sales.
"The real question is: How many people are waiting?" said Dwight Decker, president of Rockwell
Semiconductor.
The two groups have been peddling incompatible 56K modems. These are the next generation of
ever speedier modems, products that send computer language over analog telephone lines.
ITU, a telecommunications industry group, on Dec. 4 came to a consensus on a preliminary
standard. Modem makers already are devising products that adhere to the new specifications.
The official decision is slated to be made at ITU's September meeting.
The ITU has had to overcome several hurdles in fixing a standard. 3Com and Rockwell have
fought hard for their respective technologies. And a third party has claimed that he owns some of
the 56K-technology intellectual property.
Still, both sides see the 56K battle as over. "There's a lot of sound and fury over intellectual
property, and there will be another set of discussions. But it won't slow down acceptance of the
standard," said Decker, whose firm is a unit of Seal Beach, Calif.'s Rockwell International Inc. It
is the top producer of the chipsets that go into modems.
Why is 56K such a big deal? The technology represents a big jump in speed from what was
previously available. Until this year, modems could receive information at no more than 33.6
kilobits per second.
The speed helps users surf the Web faster. There are a few caveats. Though the modems are
capable of accessing data at 56K, Federal Communication Commission rules restrict the power
output of the modems used by service providers. As a result, 56K modems download information
at no more than 53K. And, due to noise on the phone line and other factors, the modems
typically don't even get that kind of speed. Still, the 56K devices are far faster than conventional
fare.
Rockwell's version of 56K - called K56flex - is supported by communications bigwigs such as
Lucent Technologies Inc. of Murray Hill, N.J., and Motorola Inc. of Schaumburg, Ill. San Jose,
Calif.- based Diamond Multimedia Systems Inc. and Boston's Zoom Telephonics Inc. are among
the manufacturers selling K56flex modems.
Santa Clara, Calif.-based 3Com, meanwhile - thanks to its June acquisition of U.S. Robotics
Corp. - sells more modems than anyone else. Its technology is called X2.
Both K56flex and X2 emerged early this year. The two different modems can't communicate with
one another. Each can only dial into Internet service providers that have the right equipment. U.S.
Robotics' retail dominance helped it establish an early lead. But K56flex modems have been
catching up.
The technical specifications reached by the ITU were drawn mainly from the K56flex technology,
although 3Com did make contributions.
Recent ITU meetings had been unproductive, says Rockwell's Decker. But at this most recent
meeting in Orlando, Fla., the two sides came together.
"3Com basically threw in the towel -they just wanted a standard," he said. Furthermore, he says
K56flex offered better performance.
3Com officials, however, don't see the standard as so one-sided. "It was a nice balance," said
Joe Dunsmore, vice president of new business initiatives at 3Com. "We feel that it blends both
approaches."
Dunsmore admits 3Com was eager to establish a set of specifications. "There's been a
dampening of demand without a standard," he said.
That's not to say the modems have been selling poorly. According to PC Data Inc., a market
research firm in Reston, Va., more than half of U.S. modem revenue in October came from 56K
devices.
But there may be certain groups, such as information-systems managers at large corporations,
who have been awaiting a standard before buying 56K.
"If an I.S. manager is making decisions for thousands of workers, he doesn't want to touch the
technology more than once," Dunsmore said.
There are some consumers who have waited for a resolution to the 56K battle and may have
skipped a few generations of upgrades. "There may be users of 14.4K modems who will now go
up to 56K," said Decker.
For many, upgrading to a new modem standard is easier than before. Most new modems,
including all of 3Com's, are software upgradable. That means consumers can adjust the
specifications of their modem without touching the hardware. They simply download new software
from the Web.
The 56K modems cost a little more than older models. Typically they run around $170, says
Stephen Baker, an analyst at PC Data. The 33.6K variety cost about $100.
ISPs and corporate networks also will have to upgrade to the new specifications. But they should
be ready by summer, says Decker. "Now, there's no reason not to buy a modem," he said. |
