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Technology Stocks : 3Com Corporation (COMS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mang Cheng who wrote (12146)	12/11/1997 11:26:00 PM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 45548

<< I don't think you and Craig are very experienced short sellers, neither am I a very experienced longs - or else I won't be left holding this bag <Ha ! Ha! Ha!> >> Speak for yourself. I have only had one short ever that went significantly higher after I shorted it. (AOL) America-One-Line. << Right, I think holding a short position on coms right now is quite dangerous. >> I don't think it's very dangerous. I just think it's getting boring. << The chance for it to break out to $38 short term is at least 60%. >> What's the big deal about 38? That's less than 3 points away. I have been short twice now when it has reached 38. Didn't bother me before. << I would jump into a short position if coms break-down thro' 33 1/2 - then it may go to $25. >> I do agree with you here. I might add to a short position if COMS started breaking down. 33 7/8 is the closing low since the warning.

To: Mang Cheng who wrote (12146)	12/12/1997
From: Dwight E. Karlsen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 45548

Mang, what's dangerous is holding Dec. expiry options, which is what I was holding. This is as close to expiry as I ever like to get, and actually I usually like to be out after the first week of the expiry month. I don't know if you do options, but the last two weeks is when the premium gets very volatile, sometimes disappearing, then reappearing. This is because option MMs are gauging which way the stock will head, and if they decide that a certain direction is unlikely, the premium drops real fast. So I also try to make my decision early, and get out while there is still a time premium - not to mention I don't like to have guessed the direction wrong and wind up losing 100%. I'd rather make the decision soon enough, and "cut the loss" and get out while there's still money on the table for the taking. You're right in that I'm normally playing the long side of stocks, rather than the short side. However, going short or going long is essentially the same thing - Both cases you have to decide at what point to buy and what point to sell. It's just that when shorting, the sell decision comes first. Where I misjudged 3Com was in the announcement of the 56K standard. Ever since the failed attempt to come to a decision in Sept, I took it for granted that there would be a standard announced in Jan 98. The main reason I made this asssumption is the same reason the modem vendors tried real hard to come to a consensus - Another delay would have been the death of 56K sales momentum. The negative publicity about the lack of a standard has been unrelenting. Therefore, it did surprise me that the financial media would get so worked up over the fact that it looks like the ITU will be able to announce a standard in Jan. 98. IMO, the only way there could not have been a compromise is if for some bizarre reason Rockwell and 3Com had lost all sense of what's good for business. The financial media has a way of distorting and hyping news - whether the news be good or bad. The "up channel" may be intact in COMS - But stock strength usually does take a while to weaken. In my case, I realized that if COMS is strong enough to weather this latest bout of "Asian contagion", then the stock will likely not plummet to $30 before Dec. expiration. Life (and investing/trading) goes on. DK

To: Mang Cheng who wrote (12146)	12/12/1997 1:46:00 PM
From: hitesh puri	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 45548

Just a few points I observed recently : 1) Nobody knows s**t about the future of a companys business. One can only make an educated guess on a daily basis. Recently Cramer on TSC, Cisco bulls, fund managers, analysts (Morgan Stanley) et al were ranting and raving about how Cisco is immune from the Asian Flu and the network slowdown affecting their rivals. I never bought in to that and today the 10Q proves it. Eric B said the industry will grow at 20-40% but Cisco crowed 30-50% will be their growth. I would like to get some of that weed they are smoking. 2) Recent tests show the AS5300 is no where near in performance and price/port compared to MAX TNT and Total Control Hub. And now that the 56k standard will be set in 2 months there is no way the ISPs are gonna wait. That reduces Ciscos entry time into their turf. 3) Their Gigabit switch is still vaporware and many of their rivals are already delivering now and will be in 3 months. 4) In the ISP space Acend/Cascade is winning again. Unknown to most investors AT&T has chosen the Cascade CBX500 ATM switch as the building block for their internal ATM backbone. The 500 can be and will be upgraded to the GX550 (which is in beta-trial now) within 4-5 months. 5) When business slows even the mighty get affected. I am not saying Cisco does not deserve to be in the 70's but as an investor the key question is where do we go from here. This question should specially be asked by people thinking of buying Cisco. Unlike Intel (C,mon AMD is still struggling) and Microsoft, Cisco does not enjoy that much of monopoly in its markets. Its got very strong competitors and even small startups do not have a major barrier from entering into their core markets (John Chambers himself said that) as their is no universal OS to overthrow or expensive fabs to build. I would avoid a lot of falling swords and knives today. The long term picture will not get cleared up till companies hold a conference call soon else we have to wait till the earnings. I believe it will be the latter. -hitesh