To: stockroach who wrote (8319 ) 12/12/1997 2:14:00 PM From: Jan A. Van Hummel Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 14577
Stockroach, Obviously you are down on this stock or short or both, but if you think your levels are realistic you are pipe-dreaming. Assume the stock would trade at $2.50, you can buy the company for $125 million, take out the cash, abt $100 million, and you have bought a half billion dollar sales company and all its other assets, including their fab share (investment of $100 million plus) for $25 million. Arguably their fab share is worth a few multiples of the original investment, but even if taken at cost, there is a ready $200 million of which half is liquid/cash. Do you really believe the stock will trade at well below its easy break-up value? Mind you, I am talking cash ($100 million) and Fab ($100 million) only. This represents $4/share. Even at today's stock price you are buying the rest of company for $1/share. How long will it be before someone with deep pockets will start to recognize the opportunity? Moreover, if your levels would be reached, the company can buy its own share at below its book value. Between the cash they already have and their credit line they could easily buy whatever amount of shares would be available at those prices. It is like printing money. They would pay 50-60 cents for every $1 of BV in the company, and as they would do so, the value of the outstanding shares would rise. If you have just shorted the stock you are at severe risk. If you are short at higher levels, don't try to time the bottom because it may already be past history. S3 may have problems but their real value is appreciably higher than what it is trading for today. Can assure you, if I were a big-time investor I would load up because the worst case scenario would be to have to break up the company, take the cash, sell off the fab investment and the various units. No question, the whole market is crappy, and many may be called for margins and so on, to just aggrevate what is happening now, but: Just think about it and stop pipe-dreaming. JMHO Jan