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To: Tulvio Durand who wrote (11472)	12/12/1997 3:32:00 PM
From: Yakov Lurye	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25960

Tulvio, I think 3:1 ratio reported by ASMLF in September will grow through the year, but I don't see the industry buying mostly DUV tools. Installed i-steppers surely will be reused, but because they have lower throughput, some will have to work in parallel. So additional, more productive i-steppers purchases will still be needed. BTW, VLSI predicts 42% of stepper sales by Y2000 will be in DUV steppers vs. 16% in 1996. This places the DUV share for 1998 roughly at 30% (I-line /DUV ratio of 7:3). 16mb DRAM glut could be one of the drivers in purchasing DUVs - to make the crossover to 64mb DRAMs, manufacturers must increase the 64mb yields; besides, looks like 64mb DRAM may have a relatively short life cycle. Also important is the trend among DRAM producers to diversify into more complex ICs - this will improve i-line/DUV ratio. Regards, Y.