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To: Richard Jurek who wrote (920)12/12/1997 8:04:00 PM
From: Richard Jurek  Respond to of 1648
 
Correction: I mean, 100 cards sold for the day on the 56K PCMCIA (MAC) cards...guess I got carried away! Anyway, I just went back, and the numbers have changed again. Even the ones for the OS8/56K bundle. In a 20 minute period, the x2 bundle sold 5 @ $166.49. This is just one day. It should be a good quarter...

R/



To: Richard Jurek who wrote (920)12/12/1997 8:40:00 PM
From: Jeff Goodman  Respond to of 1648
 
>>At 10am 56K PCMCIA (MAC) for $251.49 had 1,482 in stock; when I checked at 6:30pm, the number in-stock was 1,348. For the 56K Enet/PCMCIA (MAC) for $355, the 10am number in-stock was 2,195; at 6:30 pm, it was 2,171. For the 56K Enet PCMCIA (WIN) at $262.19, there were 1,121 in-stock at 10am; at 6:30 pm, there were 1,113 in stock.

Richard,

Unless you had a typo in your original note, then it looks to me like they sold 134 of the first kind, 24 of the second, and 8 of the third. Respectable sales but not earthshattering without more context.

It's going to be an interesting next six weeks with Global Village, as was noted in an earlier message: MacWorld SF, new modem standard, and GV's quarterly results.

Regards,

Jeff



To: Richard Jurek who wrote (920)12/12/1997 8:48:00 PM
From: dale velkovitz  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1648
 
<Strangely enough, one actually went up during the times I "audited" their "in-stock" numbers. The 56K PCMCIA (WIN) for 173.49 had 998 in-stock at 10am; at 6:30 pm, they had 1,048 in-stock. (Must've gotten a new shipment in?).

Anyway -- if their web-site "in-stock" numbers are accurate...well, that is a hell of a lot of movement, and with one outlet. Thoughts?

Also: anyone know any other web-direct sellers of GVIL modems that have "in-stock" numbers that we can monitor?

Richard>

As I have posted yesterday, ISN does not stock ANY inventory, you are actually looking at the inventory counts for Ingram Distributors, the largest computer distriubor in the U.S.. Ingram quite typically will account for 10-15% of a peripheral maufacturers U.S. sales and Ingram is often the largest single customer for a manufacturer. So it is not correct in any way to ascribe ISN sales as those of a "single Outlet" . It is probably reasonable to estimate the ISN sales as 10%-15% of a company's total U.S. sales. Sometimes you can get the actual percentage that a company sells through Ingram in their 10-K report in the signficant customer relations part of the report. You also have to be extremely careful in extrapolating sales rates based on a single days sales. There are extremely large variances in the rate of sales from day to day and in addition when you use an online source such as ISN you have no direct information on restocks, you have to just estimate restocking based on observed inventory levels. I can tell you that from taking a large number of reads from ISN's numbers that GVIL has been not had any stock on the MAC k56flex external modems since NOV 18, and very little MAC X2 since Dec 5th, the OS-8 MAC bundles have also been out of stock since Dec 6th. If nothing else the stockouts on these items coupled with the overstock situation on the PC card products and the fire sale pricing on the X2 PC modems makes me very wary of GVIL's claims that they can expertly manage their channel inventories. It appears to me that either they don't know what their channel inventories are or have very limited ability to properly manage production across its SKU's. The fact that Investor relations also never seems to return phone calls also is a serious concern.