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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Earlie who wrote (25090)	12/12/1997 10:24:00 PM
From: Joseph G.	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 132070

Hey, Early, read this: biz.yahoo.com Japan WILL (not?) be next. Now, if you were a little smarter (and who can't be a little smarter?), you'd understand, if even Japan is not next, US is much better and is in fine shape. Don't you believe IMF economists? You godless bolshevist .. -g- Joe

To: Earlie who wrote (25090)	12/13/1997 12:46:00 AM
From: jeffbas	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 132070

Your points are well taken, but I am right on the 25%-75% declines by number of tech companies (not market capitalization weighted), which is what I said: -every semiconductor company -every semi equipment company -every software company but MSFT -every hardware seller but IBM, HWP and DELL -every ECM company -every disk drive company -almost every electronics parts distributor but ARW and AVT (There may be a few exceptions, since I do not pretend to be familiar with every tech company.) The smaller the capitalization the worse the damage and, as I said, many (especially smaller ones) hit their highs in the Spring of 1996. This may be a 4 times in a century event we are facing now. In that case your pessimism will be justified. I just don't like driving down the investment road looking in the rear view mirror for such things - I am too likely to hit a tree. I respectfully suggest that, just as bulls get too optimistic for their own good at the end of major advances, you are sounding too dogmatic for the declines I mentioned above. As we approach the bottom in a bear market we should get less certain that we are right rather than more certain. As a simple example, I would probably have to do a good deal of due diligence if asked by a long term investor whether TXN should be sold at today's closing price (down 42% from the high). Good luck.