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Technology Stocks : Jabil Circuit (JBL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: patroller who wrote (2079)	12/13/1997 3:55:00 PM
From: solderman.com	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 6317

Patroller, The market is saying something about the valuation of ECM stocks and right now that's all that matters. The enthusiasm that was there recently is gone. The multiples are retreating to historical norms in the group. Overcapacity MAY be an issue. I know you are a bull on JBIL and FLEXF and SLR, but sometimes it's better to be rich than right. No disrespect intended, but you have been on the wrong side of the trendt for a while (and a lot of points in the stocks you like). The market is not always rational, but ignoring the market's message and direction is also a mistake IMHO. Why Ko Nishimura thinks he has no competition is beyond me. I agree the growth the industry is undergoing is huge- growth in investment in new plants, equipment, etc. All this costs. Maybe there are new contracts in place to justify the new capacity, but they can all be cancelled at any time. I have read that ECMs do anywhere from 10-15% of all electronic assemblies now. What do you think the ceiling is on this? I know it's not 100%. BTW, was Ko talking about ECM's eventually having 100% of the assembly market? Was he saying that ECMs would eventually be 10 times larger in revenue(but still only have 10-15% of the assembly market)? Did he give a time frame? Was he talking about SLR only or the whole ECM industry? My stance is that long term this is a great place to have some money, but the correction may not be done with, and it could be a fair while before we retest old highs. JMHO.

To: patroller who wrote (2079)	12/16/1997 2:19:00 AM
From: Asymmetric	Respond to of 6317

Patroller Thanks for the notes on Solectron. I haven't had time to go over their conference call, and only skimmed Paul K's excellent notes. Just wanted to say I'm looking forward to Jabil's earnings report tomorrow. Most Nasdaq and stock indicators are way in oversold territory...and so for that matter is Jabil. It may sound wierd, but IMHO, South Korea still holds the key to how US tech stocks do here. A good report by Jabil should see the stock make a tenative recovery. When/if all the bad news is out on S.Korea (note - it doesn't have to get better, people just want to make sure all the bad news is OUT, so they can finally make some kind of assessment on the depth of the fallout) then Nasdaq and tech stocks should recover strongly. Just my two cents. Good luck. Peter.