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Technology Stocks : Jabil Circuit (JBL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: solderman.com who wrote (2080)	12/13/1997 4:51:00 PM
From: ccryder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6317

<<...and it could be a fair while before we retest old highs.>> My opinion is that time will be measured in a few months for a lot of techs. There is much concern over SEA in the market. The market is trashing every company that has anything at all to do with SEA. It doesn't matter whether the company is buying from, building in, or selling to SEA. So while I agree with you in that it is "...better to be rich than right...", one way to do this is by being a contrarian. This does not mean buying any old stock that is at wholesale prices just because everybody else is selling. By being selective and using some Ney to say when to buy and valuation to say what to buy, a contrarian approach can be very productive. Hold your JBIL. It's too late to sell now. Irrational markets make for inefficient markets. And right now there are a lot of good buys. Who are the consumers for the stuff that JBIL builds, SEA? Not by a long shot. We in the US are. Will SEA currency devaluation hurt JBIL plants in SEA, paying workers in local currency, selling products for dollars? Not by a long shot. Who will benefit from cheaper electronic parts bought from SEA? JBIL for one. I have figured this stuff out and there were some large block trades. So I bought JBIL calls Friday, instead of covering my short against the box, for tax reasons. The potential assembly market for ECMs is quite high. HP makes, woops, I mean sells a lot of printers. If anyone has the business to sustain an OEM shop, I would have guessed HP would be at the top of the OEM list. Yet they have been farming out printers. Apple sold their production facility to SCI who now builds and ships MACs directly to consumers. There are a lot of differences between ECMs. Some have little or no design capability. Some just make circuit boards. Some make the whole end item and ship it directly to the consumer. That is one reason why you see differences in margins, and why some are growing more than others. When will the market figure all this out? I have learned that it is usually sooner than later.

To: solderman.com who wrote (2080)	12/13/1997 8:45:00 PM
From: patroller	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6317

Richard you make some very good point's some I can't answer,like valuation's near term your guess is as good as mine.However any company that grow's their earning's at 30=50% a year will be in demand .I think you will agree,that sometime during that time they will get a forward PE of 30-40 time's.I agree that the jury is still out on the ecm sector ,in two or three day's we will know alot more,having said that I'am not the lone bull,you and I have readed many report's and artical's an their saying the same thing as I.What I do believe is the street has it wrong so does Jim Savage @ Alex Brown his 12 month price target is 85 buck's unchanged from oct.Yesterday SANM had their target raise to 120 buck and it went down 10 buck's only to recover and close down 5 buck's.Reguarding my investment's I do own a lot of jabil and I traded it,according to the market,bought sold shorted the box wrote call's about everyting you can think of,all in all I own 30% more than I did when it was at 72,yes I have lost a lot of paper money.Anyway thank's for your concern.Having said all of the above I stand by every think I have said.patroller

To: solderman.com who wrote (2080)	12/14/1997 2:49:00 AM
From: patroller	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6317

Richard sorry that I did'nt answer all your question's the wife and I were on the way to dinner.I just reported what I heard,I got no more and no less.However I believe what he was sugesting was that price is a consideration, it is more so with the OEM them self's.(the oem will give you the manufactoring if you can do it for about what they can do it themself's )so the major factor is who can provide the best sevice.Look at it like this qntm sell's the tape dive say for 1000 dallor's @ 40% margin jabil make's the circuit board for 100 dallor's at a net 6.5% margin,jabil give's up 2% that's 2 buck's ,qntm make's 402 dallor's instead of 400,jabil earning's drop by 30% the stock tank's and jabil can't find any enginner's to work for them because the can't make any money on company stock option's,mean while jabil's trying to grow big enough to handle all this new biz that qntm want's them to do, if you ran qntm would the two buck's be worth it,because if it is you'll be back in the maufactoring biz in no time.At the last conference call it was ask,if jabil was having any problem getting equipment,due to the shortage they heard about,Tom stated that their equipment was ordered well in advance and saw no problem .So your qntm you just blew out your emc you have no eqipment and the other emc's are all tied up with their own customer's so for 2 buck's your toast,I think I would let them keep the 2 buck's how about you? Likewise csco and 3com's want's no part of the above you just want to beat the crap out of each other, so you can have more market share then the other guy.In either case you need jabil whole. Look all the OEM's are giving up as much of their manufactoring as fast as possible and it's probly costing them little or nothing, the die is cast the oem's already made up their mind, why would they change it now.jmho jmho Patroller