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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: EyeDrMike who wrote (3598)	12/13/1997 3:29:00 PM
From: Musa Goksel Bulat	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23519

Normaly removing one of the lines will reduce production only for that month. They are saying that production is down 25% for the whole quarter and they produced 1600000 units during september and October which will be available for sale un Q4. In order production and sales for Q4 to decrease 25% relative to Q3 they should have manufactured 150000 units in November. This is a decrease of 81 % for November relative to October. Where did you get 4 lines, I think they have 2 lines now, after moving one of the lines. Musa

To: EyeDrMike who wrote (3598)	12/13/1997 4:27:00 PM
From: Neil_L	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23519

I also got from the CC that they had 3 lines at old plant and moved one to new plant. They were a little murkier about increasing production but seemed to say that they would get one line at the new plant up and running during q1 for a total of three plus some tweaking to increase yield. A couple of my concerns: Demand. As an earlier post mentioned, in the cc they went from strong demand to flat first time scripts at 10,000 and ended off saying that current demand is running at the reduced capacity of 600,000. Thats decreasing demand! They also admit this by emphasizing how important it is to get their demand stimulus program going again. Refill rates. From this board and what management said refill rates are running OK. The CEO brushed off refill rates in the CC saying they needed to stimulate first time demand. Thats OK but I want to see people reusing the product...over and over. Advertising. Why not start advertising earlier than Feb if demand stimulus is needed. Either there appears to be larger production problems or management is startled at the decrease in demand and wants to slow down production. The question asked over and over again by the analysts is a valid one...why are inventories building up if demand is strong and production has be radically decreased? Management did have an explanation for it...it remains to be fully answered. Management certainly screwed up. I hope thats all. I had convinced myself that the product works and is and will continue to be an effective treatment for ed. Now I have a little nagging doubt. Probably has something to do with the money I lost (temporarily?) last week. Unfortunately, its probably going to be some time before I can answer the demand question. It seems until they do some advertising etal to stimulate demand again, and that starts in February, the best we can hope for on this side of the ocean is stable demand and hopefully increasing refill rates mingled with a lot of strong initial acceptance in UK, much like occured until recently here. I think it may be awhile before we see any major recovery. I went through this with IOM and look at the mending time...18 months later and still clawing its way through resistance, has a high short interest and is constantly battered by the media...and I still think its the best growth story out there. I have been following this company closely and was as suprised as everybody about this announcement. Biggest point to learn from this is to listen to the stock. I questioned my position as it sat at 38, down ~2 on the day of earnings when my expectation were to see it rise. Then again when TA jumped ship at 37. Thats history now but the stock was certainly telling a story on the way down. One naive question for the doctors or others that espouse the combination of Viagra and Muse. It Muse works well by itself and Muse would be needed to help Viagra, why bother with Viagra? You've got to go through the Muse discomfort anyway. Still long but not as strong :o( tia, Neil.