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To: Dennis Roth who wrote (184382)6/19/2014 7:04:57 AM
From: Dennis Roth8 Recommendations

Recommended By
Ed Ajootian
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Energy Weekly: Turmoil In Iraq May Have Long-Lasting Impact
17 June 2014 ¦ 13 pages ir.citi.com

Iraqi Supply Growth Critical For Current and Future Oil Balances.
Russia-Ukraine Flares Again As Gas Flows Are Cut

‘Turmoil in Iraq is likely to impact global energy markets now and for years to
come’
, worries Commodities analyst Seth Kleinman, ‘for Saudi Arabia has an
effective monopoly on global spare capacity... but given that the market has never
seen Saudi Arabia hold production over 10m b/d, a combination of scepticism and
caution seems warranted... plus the renewed calls to sanction Russia are further
bolstering the bulls and explain the jump in prices and volatility... also, Iraq’s
significance may grow with time;
the IEA’s 2013 Medium Term Oil Market
Outlook forecast had Iraq accounting for 48% and 46% of the growth in global oil
production from 2012 to 2020 and 2025, respectively... through to 2035 the IEA
forecasts Iraq to continue to account for just under half of the whole world’s oil
production growth...
the 2.8m b/d forecast of growth in Iraqi production will
require a secure investment climate’.