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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (13231)	12/13/1997 5:28:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 70976

The shape of the bottom: will be U-shaped, like the cross-section of a glacier-carved valley. It will not be V-shaped like a water-carved valley. There are a lot of people (like me) who saw that double-bottom at 30-32, and felt it was now safe to buy, in the low-to-mid-30s. A lot of them (unlike me) will probably bail out when we approach that level again, which means we will have to hit 35 a number of times before breaking through it. How long will the flat bottom last? At least two months, till the next earnings report. And if general uncertainty persists, a good quarterly report will only keep the stock price level. At the very outside, I see this lasting 12 months, all the way through 1998. Even if Korea defaults, even if we have a trade war, even if we have a recession, I can't see it lasting longer than that. By then, the pressure to place orders for more .25, and then 0.18, and then 200 mm, cannot be put off any longer. Merced will drag AMAT's price up, if nothing else does first. So, if I take the mid-point of 2-98 and 12-98, I get 7-98 as the time when the flat valley bottom abruptly climbs a vertical wall back to new all-time highs, in 1999. Only people who are fully invested at the bottom, and willing to stay there as long as is necessary, will catch all of that move. Further, once the upward movement begins, I think it will continue for about 30 months. Corrections will be no more than 20%, and last no more than a few weeks. On most months, new highs will be established, higher than the highs of the previous month. That's the pattern we saw from 7-96 to 8-97, and I believe it will be repeated, but last about twice as long, and bring the price to 150 in the year 2001. I think I'll place that limit sell order now, at 150, just for fun.