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Technology Stocks : Texas Instruments - Good buy now or should we wait? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Keith Fauci who wrote (2475)	12/13/1997 7:00:00 PM
From: TREND1	Respond to of 6180

Keith I am a trend follower. I would become bullish (long term)on TXN, if TXN made a new monthly high. That number durimg the rest of Dec 1997 would be TXN=61. Come Jan 1998 a new monthly high will only have to exceed Dec 1997. ......I remember a story about the 1929 crash (last time deflation was around) A stock of a railroad (Southern Pacific) was selling at $200+ with a dividend of $2...by the time 1933 rolled around this company had no dividend and it's stock price was $2 ......Now I have lived long enough to remember the 1972-1974 bear market. I lived through the time where the average stock on the NYSE loss 80% of their value. ......Is this the beginning of a big fall ? Hell, I do not know ! In fact I DO NOT NEED TO KNOW ! WHY ? Because I will just follow the trend. It is just that simple ! Larry Dudash PS: Right on the monthly,weekly,daily trend of TXN is "DOWN"

To: Keith Fauci who wrote (2475)	12/13/1997 9:42:00 PM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6180

Hi Keith Fauci; Regarding TXN's long term growth rate... In 1981, sales per share for TXN was $14.86 In 1990, sales per share for TXN was $19.55 In 1992, sales per share for TXN was $21.34 In 1995, sales per share for TXN was $34.63 In 1997, sales per share for TXN is about $26.10 The 16-year growth rate is 3.58%, which is pretty bad. The 5-year growth rate is 4.11%, not much better. Better is the growth rate from 1990 to 1995 (a good year for semiconductors.) which was 12.11%. But looking at growth to a peak year is a lousy way of making an investment decision. How did you get 18% growth? Looking at earnings instead of sales? Earnings float around a lot. And companies have been showing higher earnings as a percent of sales over the last 17 years. Higher labor costs will take those earnings out over the long run, just as they did over the decades leading up to the 1982 low. Nope, the DSP story is ancient (1985) history. TXN hasn't been a growth stock since Amy lived in the White House. And a couple of years bounces in earnings don't make a long term trend. TXN is not a growth stock. It is a mature company in a mature industry. With a P/E of 10, the stock could go as low as $28, based on next years (optimistic?) earnings. By the way, I'm no longer short this company only because I think there are better shorts out there, not because it has become a great bargain. -- Carl