To: Big Dog who wrote (5080 ) 12/14/1997 9:37:00 AM From: Thean Read Replies (8) | Respond to of 95453
Rev. Simmons and all brothers and sisters, I come forth here this morning to thank each one of you for your outpouring of kind words. Having reflected on my hasty decision overnight, I now truly regret making that resignation posting. I sincerely hope all troubles caused is forgiven and I'm coming back home! There is something about this thread that is special. If the recent driller low downs does any good, it is the bonding that we establish for sharing and learning here. You guys are right, this is too good a place to leave because this "Brotherhood of Losers" is going to be the "Glorious Drilling Congregation" in a few weeks. Maybe we should motion to set up a "GDC" option on the big board (since we already have RDC and SDC, GDC should not be a symbol in conflict). OK, back to business. The next week is going to be the last week before the active traders leave for the holiday. For the fund managers who are locking in on year end profits, they have already done so by now and if not, they are holding on for next year. No fund managers will reasonably want to sell into thin volume between Christmas and New Year. Next week will also be the last active volume week to load up at bargain prices before the next year arrives. So if my guess is correct, the next week should be a good week. It happens that most drillers are sitting at or near support from TA standpoint and that is the natural support. The psychology at buying at the "bottom" is like placing a bet. The odd is rebound versus catching a falling knife. I like the odd of a rebound better given current scenario. Another 4-5% drop on Monday will move a number of drillers outside the intraday lower BB and this is a clear sign of "incoherent panic selling" which I'll use as intraday buying opportunity. But if we close 4-5% lower on Monday we are going to be in for a rude awakening becuase this will be the unexpected. IMO only a general market meltdown or a big shift in fundamentals can do that. Someone asked about the divergence between the Second Opinion Stochastics and the IQC Stochastics where the SO stochastics correctly predicted the last peak but the IQC did not. This is a good insight. Obviously the moving averages set between the two are different. My guess (since I really don't know the actual moving average settings for either of them) is that the SO has 3 and 5-7 days as the two moving averages and IQC has 5-7 and 13 days as their settings. I backtested the IQC a lot and find it to be very useful in a normal market, e.g. between March and August this year. However, since the the SO stochastics works this time, I would place some emphasis on this shorter moving averages in time like this for the future. It is like catering your settings to fit the current needs kind of thing, except in this case we know it after the fact. Maybe we should talk about a fast and a slow Stochastics in the future. I have not used stocksmart for a while now anyone knows if they begin to charge a fee for using their TA? Thanks for pointing this out.