Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : QUANTUM -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Reuben who wrote (6719)	12/14/1997 12:35:00 PM
From: John Goldthorp	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9124

Scary predictions for the demise of the PC Industry as we know it ... IMHO, sub-1000 PC is just another evolutionary step in 15-year decline in ASP's for manufacturers Has anyone thought of upgrade potential down road for sub-sized storage capacity in these "loss-leaders". Western Digital and Quantum may benefit here (at better margins). Comp USA too. Other phony reasoning is that low end of market primarily opts for $999 special. Some (many) of these low end buyers drive Firebirds and BMW's not GEOs and Kias. And if mistakes are made, those $1500-2000 Micron, Dell, and Compaq machines (with better price performance) may begin to appeal. Result: Jr. gets the "grand" machine, does homework on MS Works. Dad gets his "two grand" machine, begins to wish he had DVD and a fast SCSI drive. PC Industry including component makers still grow. Biggest risk seems to me is weak yen and Asian currencies. But then again, does anyone remember Toshiba Infinia? That was going to be the demise of the US PC industry in some minds, too! Bears are easiest to find at the bottom. JG

To: Paul Reuben who wrote (6719)	12/14/1997 4:05:00 PM
From: Rob S.	Respond to of 9124

The article has a lot of truth to it but ignores a discussion about how the market is diverging into several product areas. I think the PC is becoming more and more of a commodity product with severe price presures similar to VCR's, , microwaves, etc. But there are also thriving PC workstation, server, telecom/server convergent PBX products, and mainframe replacement networks that will expand to the upside. I agree completely that the major show stopper to industry expansion is internet/telco bandwidth. The race for increasing internet bandwidth has just begun, probably a full couple of years after many thought it would. Standards have just recently been decided upon for ADSL and other XDSL high-speed POTS wireline services that should deliver around 1.4 GB/s thru the average household/business phone connection, ADSL and other cable modem technologies are now ready to move forward at costs similar to 56K modems, three world-wide satelite systems are being implemented by Motorola, Alcatel, and Teledesic, and bandwidth has been allocated for a few competing land based wireless "last-mile" data+telco systems. We should see a relative explosion in bandwidth that will become available at competitive prices over the next few years. That should greatly expand the need for mid to high-end storage sub-systems. What I believe we are seeing is a short term shakeout that will lead to fewer players. Prices for desktop drives will remain low but markets will continue to expand for DLT and high-end drives.