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To: JMD who wrote (6421)	12/14/1997 12:21:00 PM
From: dougjn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Financial Times,London: <<South Korea: Who blinks first? FRIDAY DECEMBER 12 1997 South Korea is playing a dangerous game of chicken. Scarcely is the ink dry on last week's $57bn International Monetary Fund rescue package than the country is asking for disbursements to be accelerated. If Korea was implementing the IMF's conditions with vigour, such a request might be reasonable. But it gives the impression of backsliding. So how can Korea hope to get its way? Only because it thinks the IMF will be scared that if Korea defaults on its foreign debt the rest of the world will be dragged down with it. Korea is used to winning its way through brinkmanship, but this time it may be miscalculating. A default would, indeed, have nasty knock-on effects: exposed foreign banks would have to make provisions; the risk premium for other newly industrialised or emerging countries would rise; and the earnings of multinationals exposed to Korea would be depressed. But none of this would cause a global financial collapse. By contrast, the impact on Korea itself would be devastating. Apart from damaging its credit-rating for decades, a default would plunge its economy into further immediate trouble. Financing imports, for example, would become extremely tricky. The IMF should call Korea's bluff and refuse further funds until the country shows it is implementing the programme properly. If Korea does default, at least other countries will know the IMF means business.

To: JMD who wrote (6421)	12/15/1997 1:33:00 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 152472

"Ah, the joys of heresay". Oh deer Mike! Heresy? Hearsay? Harvey White = Chief Financial Officer?!!! Did you no a nameless won onedered who Erwin [Ramsey's speling] was sometime ago. A hint is his name began with Michael. I'm not shure that we can get away with calling bad speling American. Meanwhile, sorry to the lurkers regarding Ramsey's survey. Ramsey ignored the fact that to click on his name to get his email address you need to be a paid up member of SI. So there will be few replies I guess! Then he goes on holiday! Ramsey - bad form. Mike, I don't think the Japanese are as homogenous as you suggest. Sure, they are broadly similar, speaking Japanese and all that kind of thing but I don't know that you can use the national character as a way of predicting the outcome of the liquidity crisis, which is really simply a bunch of investors losing their shirts. I think of a liquidity crisis as a good profitable business running out of working capital. Not really the case here. They have invested badly. Like the real estate speculation here and in USA in the 80s with nobody to rent the empty buildings. Not a liquidity crisis. A massive capital destruction with resulting dislocations while markets cleared. As you said earlier, this is not a zero sum game. It fascinates me how worried people are by Korea and its impact on the world in general and Qualcomm in particular. There have been lots of sums, sales projections, etc gone through here and overall, the damage is small bananas compared with the position of cmdaOne overall. Don't forget, cdmaOne has been under development for 10 years now. It has been a long haul. It has finally reached critical mass. The increase in market share, sales, revenue, profit, technical development is going to accelerate dramatically next year and over the next 2 years. Korea will be not even a blip on the map looking back from 1999. 1998 is going to be the really exciting year. 1997 saw the final ignominious defeat of the naysayers, disbelievers and physicists who said cmda could not work in mobile. 7 million daily users know it does. 1998 will see the massive commercial rollouts really get going. But sellers can always vote a stock lower if nobody buys. So we'll see in the morning what a weekend's reflection has done. Thanks for the prize. Mqurice [chock full of Qcom, GSTRF and margined to boot! A bit greedy; maybe a pig. Let's see if I get slaughtered according to the unpleasant parlance of the day] Dow 8000 Feb 92 Dow 16000 Feb 02 [with lots of printing already underway to get us there]