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Technology Stocks : CheckFree (CKFR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Charlie Smith who wrote (968)	12/14/1997 2:16:00 PM
From: Brooks Jackson	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 8545

What's the right price for CKFR? Just going with Charlie's numbers, CKFR would be currently selling for about 50x next year's projected earnings. I think that's double the multiple of the S&P 500, for LAST year's REAL earnings. I'm hopelessly long on CKFR as you know, and my plan is to hold forever, or until some big change in the basic business, or until I find I've made a humongous mistake in my thinking, whichever comes first. Still, I'm wondering if CKFR hasn't gotten way ahead of itself here. What other companies now sell for multiples like that? And what other companies should be be comparing CKFR to? I'm thinking of companies with products like razor blades -- or coke -- products everybody uses, endlessly repeatable, and with a monopoly or (same thing) fierce brand loyalty. Coke, for sure. Gillette, absolutely. Maybe Intel (I'm not so sure on that one, the product keeps changing and threatening to become a commodity). Cigarette manufacturers? (But I doubt CKFR will ever have the threat of massive lawsuits for wrongful deaths hanging over it.) My thought is to come up with a list of companies that have a business model something like the one CKFR aspires to, then look at their historic growth rates and multiples, and see how CKFR's current price compares, based on the various earnings projections. Anyone else want to play? Post your thoughts. When CKFR grows up, what companies will it most be like?