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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: FJB who wrote (11547)	12/15/1997 2:22:00 AM
From: Yakov Lurye	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

Bob, re : <DUV lithography is a great growth story for the next few years, then it will be a nice cash cow for many years> That's a given - the main risk to be assessed is whether Cymer can maintain high market share that seems to be built into CYMER growth projections. Most lasers used in 1998 will come from CYMER - simply because of the built-in delay between receiving the laser and shipping the stepper. LB's ASMLF reportprojects 150 tools and 25% of the market for ASMLF; this is 600 tools forecast for the industry. Assuming for simplicity that manufacturers will at least reorder shipped lasers and current 80% market share for CYMER, I am fairly comfortable with at least 480 CYMER lasers ordered in 1998, and accordingly with $1.02 1998 EPS. After that, the picture is less clear. We have limited information about the status of the 193nm race and know virtually nothing about the margins for the new product. Manufacturers are always interested in alternative suppliers and are not above playing one against another to obtaing better prices. Regards, Y.