Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tejek who wrote (799912)	8/6/2014 12:38:01 PM
From: combjelly	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1579737

His window of opportunity is closing. I think it has already closed. The Ukrainian military is a credible force now. And the Russian speaking Ukrainians are losing their interest in Russia. If he were to invade now, he would be involved in a protracted war. A couple of months ago he probably could have taken Eastern Ukraine and a strip along the south to hookup with that breakaway republic in Moldavia in a week or two. Now it would take longer and incur causalities. Neither of which the Russian public would stand for. And the likely stiffer sanctions would crater the economy. He got emboldened when Bush did nothing but bluster in the wake of Georgia. And then an investment of some troops, APCs and Kalashnikovs got him Crimea at the cost of a few, very targeted concessions. It looked like Eastern Ukraine was up for grabs, but by then the Ukrainian army had started to pull together. The addition of MANPADs equalized things a bit, but even introducing the Buks, engaging the Ukrainian SU-25s with fighters on the Russian side and even cross-border artillery wasn't enough to counter the emboldened Ukrainian army. So now he has an array of unpalatable choices. What he will decide to do is unclear. But I don't see a win scenario for him. If he invades, it is likely to be costly. Not that the Ukrainians can win, but they sure can hurt and slow things. And the Europeans, some of whom are calling the downing of MH17 their 9/11, would go ape shit. Not that I see NATO getting involved, but they will hit back with sanctions that hurt. If he doesn't invade, the rebels will fall and likely expose exactly how deeply involved Russia was with them. He also will lose any chance of annexing the Ukraine. In either case, the prospect of him losing power is high. If he doesn't invade, he might survive that event.