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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Big Bucks who wrote (13333)	12/15/1997 2:41:00 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

BB: re: freezing currencies, hidden debts, and fab financing: By "freezing", I guess you mean the government declaring the currency non-convertible. Korea wants to be a member of the global economy, buying and selling and borrowing with everyone. You need a stable and convertible currency to do that. A government edict would only create a black market, anyway. I think it's pretty clear now that Korea will not be able to borrow anything for any more fabs, at least until DRAM overcapacity abates, and prices for commodity chips go back to dropping by only 30% a year, not the recent freefall. This will not happen for 6-12 months. They will probably lose market share. Taiwan looks to be in better shape, and may build some of the fabs the Koreans cancel, and pick up market share. It's still an open question about whether Japan sinks from stagnation into recession. Lots of companies in lots of these countries (Korea, China, Japan) seems to have a lot of debt that they've kept "off the books". That's an odd concept, borrowing lots of money and not letting anyone know about it. I expect more unpleasant surprises. Do you think we'll see the bottom within the next 30 days? Will we need to form a base lasting till next summer? Dave thinks we won't see 30 anytime in 1998. Are you that pessimistic?

To: Big Bucks who wrote (13333)	12/15/1997 9:33:00 AM
From: akidron	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

I am the first to admit that I bought back too early. But I will buy heavily today on weakness. The downgrades at this point are imaterial. They are largely cosmetic. They involve firms not wanting to show buy rating on a stock that is down 50% since they last reiterated them. Look for GS, MS and LEH to reiterate buy rating soon, taking advantage of the price decline. Yes there are huge risks ahead but thay are absolutley in the price. What is more AMAT is best positioned to smooth out order cycle to aviod taking the big hit predicted. They underachieved last guarter to enable exactly this. I know the above will not help folks who got in at 100 feel better but today is the day to dollar coat average in my opinion.