Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Teri Skogerboe who wrote (3842)	12/15/1997 2:58:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10921

Teri, Agree with most of what you said. Some stocks vastly oversold: e.g. BRKS at $12 when $9 of its $14+ book value is in cash; and its prospects remain bright. Others may go down further should the street perceive a down cycle. I don't expect AMAT to warn; but they could easily throw more cold water on the sector with negative forward looking statements during the next conference call. Given the number of warnings, I doubt that others missing will have a major sector effect. Re technology buys: Yes that's been the case. However, technology buys ultimately lead to production line buys. I doubt that any chipmaker is investing in new technology just to increase the skill sets of their staff. The return comes only when applied on the factory floor, not in a pilot line. I don't know how long it will take to get all the kinks ironed out of DUV, 0.25æm, P-GILD, etc. I suspect that it's less than another year. Ian.

To: Teri Skogerboe who wrote (3842)	12/16/1997 12:21:00 AM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 10921

Teri, it seems like AMAT at $108 happened eons ago, doesn't it? I now think I was quite foolish then. You said >I am more bearish than I've ever been on these stocks, and I don't want to be,...< Welcome to the club. Even the Morgan interview in IBD did nothing for me. It was basically flag waving. I know most of these companies will survive, but have no idea where they'll be 3 or 6 months from now. You also said... >I think Brian mentioned SENTIMENT, and I agree that usually the best prices occur when everyone hates or is scared to death of a sector. I think we're getting there.< Sentiment is more important than FA or TA right now. It is harder to quantify, though.<g> It is the main reason I read street.com now. Regards Gottfried

To: Teri Skogerboe who wrote (3842)	12/16/1997 3:22:00 AM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10921

Teri, >Somebody needs to slap me hard or something because I am more bearish than I've ever been on these stocks, and I don't want to be, partly because I still own alot of them. AMAT would have us believe that the outlook is relatively rosy. I have a difficult time believing that when almost nobody is making money on DRAMs and even INTC isn't short of capacity. < IMO, unless your are terrifically margined, I believe that the upside for amat verses the downside is far greater in the long run. I had a friend today who said to me today, "so what if the price goes down $10 from where it is now when I have the potential for a $100 in two -three years." He makes a lot of since. We all know that AMAT is an excellent price and trying to time it is very difficult. I have now problem in recommending amat at these levels even if it would go down to $18 since it would be a temporary loss if we hold the stock. I define temporary as 6-18 months down the road. Kumar, Tito and Big Buck and this site have always assumed that amat will double in 2-3 years. IMO, I agree with their assumption. However, we must be patient and wait for amat to come to us. Just remember back in July '96 those of us who purchased the anywhere from $21.875-36 now have a postsplit price at $10.9375-$18.00. If my recall is correct it was the mutual funds and big boys who were late then when they got into the stock taking us along to new heights as AMAT gained new heights. Don't we see the same happening again? What do you think? Just my opinion. Paul V.