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To: James Connolly who wrote (3845)	12/15/1997 3:25:00 PM
From: Scott Maxwell	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

> Either demand dropped very quickly or production > ramped very quickly.......No ? No. Between end-users and production lines for DRAM we have Inventory, and people who manage that inventory. Short-term gyrations in DRAM prices are exaggerated by inventory management strategies like drawing down inventory when a user suspects prices are falling fast and a producer dumping its inventory when it needs cash immediately, both of which have been happening.

To: James Connolly who wrote (3845)	12/15/1997 5:48:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Respond to of 10921

JC, Media is obsessing too much IMO on the price of specific parts rather than looking at the price per Mb sold regardless of whether or not the Megabits came from 1Mb, 4Mb, 16Mb, 64Mb or 256Mb parts. We're witnessing the death of the 16Mb part. Thus its price will drop to the $1 to $2 range, its volume will drop off and 64 Mb parts will increase in volume. Ian. P.S. and 64Mb chips will continue to drop in price. P.P.S. and this trend will continue for at least another decade.

To: James Connolly who wrote (3845)	12/15/1997 9:39:00 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

<1. How can the spot price for DRAM drop so fast ? The spot price is currently around $2.10 !!! Is there any particular event which caused this ? Either demand dropped very quickly or production ramped very quickly.......No?> I too had questioned who was "dumping" to force the prices down so quickly...I wouldnt be surprised if some asians were'nt selling based on their local currencies for a period of time here. I would think this would ease soon if thats the case. I could see the whole group have a sharp rebound as some positive news comes out: ie. how bad could the book to bill be? And what if dram prices rebound? Good trading opportunity, but of course the real question remains...what about the long term? DAK