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To: Steve 667 who wrote (2127)	12/15/1997 5:57:00 PM
From: Dennis Wang	Respond to of 60323

Thanks for the post. Great work.

To: Steve 667 who wrote (2127)	12/16/1997 5:53:00 AM
From: limtex	Respond to of 60323

Steven - It's narrative like yours that makes this thread a very good reason for using AoL or the internet. Try looking for an opposite example at the Qualcomm thread (unless I've been looking a the wrong one). Regarding your comment - it might be worth looking at the European Union as one market thus bringing into focus the full implication of exactly how small Asia is in reality albeit at the moment. Asia will probably grow as a share of US and World trade sometime in the next ten years but probably not now or this year or next year. The main engines of the EU i.e. Germany and France, will and are growing now and next year and probably the year after. My guess on all this Asian pesimism is plain and simple certain NASDAQ and big board valuations have got ahead of where they can be sustained and any reasonalbe piece of bad news at this time would have done the same sort of thing. Could have been Mr Greenspan commenting, a Friday with triple witching and look even now with all this there are still comments to the effect that the Fed "probably" won't raise interest rates at this time. The fact is that the Fed is itching to raise rates and appears to have been looking for a suitable opportunity for over a year. Mr Greenspans commentslook to me like they were sort of to prepare everyone for it when the Fed action would have brought about exactly what we've got today. In any event valuations ie PE's have been changed. Thats what we've got and 50% growth in revenues and/or earnings aren't going to rate PE's of 30+ they are probably going to rate between 15 and 25 if we're lucky. My take is that we're seeing the process of adjustment to those levels. Not to be pessimistic but realistic if you put those kind of numbers into a spreadsheet it probably means that who bought at 45PE+ now will have to hold for about two years to get back provided that the company does keep to the growth track. I have'nt done the spreadsheet myself yet but thats my guess. I'll do it over the next couple of days. Now I don't suppose the Fed is happy about this Asian situation at all

To: Steve 667 who wrote (2127)	12/16/1997 4:36:00 PM
From: JJB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 60323

>>What percentage, for example, of Konica or Canon Sales are in Asia vs. the rest of the world?<< My research shows that the world viewed from Japan, markets split evenly into thirds. Japan and the rest of Asia 1/3 US and the Americas 1/3 Europe (EC), Eastern Europe, Middle East, and Africa 1/3. Japan sales are over 50% of Asian sales tend to fast acquirers of new technology (recover R& D cost). Rest of markets has high sales costs reflecting fragmented nature. EC countries are 80% of Europe, Middle East, and Africa. Tend to be closer to Japanese (high value) customers. Currently high cost due to fragmented (supposedly getting better) markets. Canada and US are over 95% of sales in Americas. Sales tend to be commodity price level purchasers where factory fixed costs are recovered through incremental sales. This mass market is so important that if there is a US based patent conflict a product may never be developed even if it is clear in other markets. Basically none of the key markets are in trouble. Japan may still be in its malaise but that has not stopped DV (digital video) camcorders and APS film cameras from outselling analog camcorders and 35mm film cameras at substantially higher price points. The real problem with digital still cameras is for the most part they are not as good as the silver halide (film) technology they are outplacing. This is not only in resolution but also in color accuracy. Intel's CMOS imager tied to post processing on a Pentium is definitely a step backwards. Manufactures are caught in a product cycle upmanship (fabulous digital camera de jour) that is causing a blood bath. This should be the year where digital cameras overcome a lot of technical issues and become mainstream. Moore's law is being helped along by a 50% reduction in costs based on currency alone over the last 2 years. As to the stock price maybe TA is a form of mass hypnosis. What I don't get is with 50% stock held by insiders, 25% +- (with secondary) held by Seagate, and from what has been posted 5 - 10% institutional holding, where are shares coming from that have been traded. I beginning to think here comes another naked short situation that NASDAQ or SEC is going to do nothing about. jjb