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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (2112)	10/14/2014 3:30:00 PM
From: berniel	Respond to of 26428

They can shut down working rigs quicker than can I have fry's with that...LOL

To: Gottfried who wrote (2112)	10/14/2014 5:03:00 PM
From: Jerome	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26428

Hi Gottfried......that was a good article about drilling. The author assumes that demand and supply (In the US and ME) will not be altered. The ME can go from overproduction to very low production if the ISIL war disrupts that supply line. Russia is a wild card....they need a given amount of revenue from oil to support their economy. So they will have to up production significantly because they need the money. In the US....gasoline the finished product of crude will become a big export product to the far east. China and the rest of the far east lacks refining capacity. Lower gas prices around the world means that more people can afford cars. More cars create more demand for gasoline. The author talks about the past oversupply of natural gas. That is true up to a point. But there is a much bigger infrastructure of tankers to transport gasoline and crude than there are tankers to transport natural gas. According to WIKI there are 4,295 oil tankers and only 235 natural gas tankers in use today around the world. Stability in oil field production around the world is unlikely. As gasoline prices drop around the country, sales of big pick-ups surge. My view would be that natural gas prices continue downward and that lower gas prices stimulate the economy. Lower day rates for oil drilling rigs are likely, but he next crises is just around the corner, waiting to blind side us at the most inopportune moment.

To: Gottfried who wrote (2112)	10/15/2014 3:47:32 PM
From: Jerome	1 Recommendation Recommended By the traveler Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 26428

Hey Gottfried,...I think you picked the bottom on the oil drillers like ESV (post 2054) You have noticed that oil rig owners have been up the last three or four days in spite of the fall crude prices. Seadrill, (SDRL), Transocean (RIG), Noble (NE), and Ensco (ESV) are doing well the last few days. Seardrill pays a 17% dividend ($4.00 a year) and has stated several times that the dividend is safe for another 2 years. All of these companies have been trading at much higher volume then normal the last week or so. All of the above companies pay very healthy dividends, which have been ignores for months. Its strange that potential investors pay more significance to idle stock chatter then to what these companies are saying publicly.