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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (2181)	10/21/2014 12:06:55 PM
From: Kirk ©	Respond to of 26463

Good info, thanks. I know a huge stock bear since i met him in 1998 who was very bullish on US Bonds. He's done very well which has a mutual friend confused as I have also done very well with stocks and real estate. This guy in 1998 told me my house in Los Altos (nice part of Silicon Valley) would drop 75 to 80% when we met but it is up more than double... Sadly, I know one who sold and moved out of the area and others who were afraid to upgrade due to his bearishness. By his calculations, public and private debt is 330% of U.S. gross domestic product, 460% in Europe and 650% in Japan. The danger zone for economies, he says, is in the 250%-to-275% range. Since the financial crisis, emerging-market countries, too, have been adding debt. “The world is more overindebted now than in 2008,” he said. He may be right... so the 1.93% on the S&P right now could look good.... We could stay with low rates for along time... the gold market seems to be telling us this... When you add in pension obligations which are still growing... it acts a a huge tax on growth as local economies have to raise taxes and cut services to repay the pension obligations the politicians gave to workers in exchange for votes. But remember that markets usually get data confirmation just before major trend reversals. Inflation here in the Silicon Valley for anyone who doesn't own a home with a fixed mortgage or paid off home is HUGE as rents are soaring as I believe I just read Sunday that our unemployment rate is better now than at the top of the bubble.